On Wed, May 17, 2017 at 12:15:17PM -0700, Steven Schear wrote: > Alternatively, bio-engineering will make practical the efficient creation > of liquid fuels from sunlight, water and CO2. No carbon footprint. No > massive upgrades to utility grids, recharge vs. refueling time tradeoffs or > distribution changes.
That would be cool! Either way, I think 8 years might be a little "optimistic", but it does seem we are in for some massive changes, at the very least with self-driving vehicles, not even taking EV into account.. > > Warrant Canary creator > > On May 17, 2017 11:25 AM, "John Newman" <j...@synfin.org> wrote: > > > Kinda off-topic, but interesting. > > > > https://hardware.slashdot.org/story/17/05/16/1942252/all- > > fossil-fuel-vehicles-will-vanish-in-8-years-says-stanford-study > > > > http://business.financialpost.com/news/transportation/ > > fossil-fuel-vehicles-will-vanish-in-8-years-in-twin- > > death-spiral-for-big-oil-and-big-autos-says-study-that- > > shocking-the-industry > > > > Stanford University economist Tony Seba forecasts in his new report that > > petrol or diesel cars, buses, or trucks will no longer be sold anywhere > > in the world within the next eight years. As a result, the > > transportation market will transition and switch entirely to > > electrification, "leading to a collapse of oil prices and the demise of > > the petroleum industry as we have known it for a century," reports > > Financial Post. From the report: > > Seba's premise is that people will stop driving altogether. They will > > switch en masse to self-drive electric vehicles (EVs) that are ten times > > cheaper to run than fossil-based cars, with a near-zero marginal cost of > > fuel and an expected lifespan of 1 million miles. Only nostalgics will > > cling to the old habit of car ownership. The rest will adapt to vehicles > > on demand. It will become harder to find a petrol station, spares, or > > anybody to fix the 2,000 moving parts that bedevil the internal > > combustion engine. Dealers will disappear by 2024. Cities will ban human > > drivers once the data confirms how dangerous they can be behind a wheel. > > This will spread to suburbs, and then beyond. There will be a "mass > > stranding of existing vehicles." The value of second-hard cars will > > plunge. You will have to pay to dispose of your old vehicle. It is a > > twin "death spiral" for big oil and big autos, with ugly implications > > for some big companies on the London Stock Exchange unless they adapt in > > time. The long-term price of crude will fall to $25 a barrel. Most forms > > of shale and deep-water drilling will no longer be viable. Assets will > > be stranded. Scotland will forfeit any North Sea bonanza. Russia, Saudi > > Arabia, Nigeria, and Venezuela will be in trouble. > > > > -- > > John > > -- John
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