I came across some interesting reading. I'm working on a paper about information security and security through obscurity. Part of my thesis is that tightened airport security in the US largely misses the mark. My main goal is to identify where traditional "security through obscurity" is being brought into play in recent security changes.
Whatever. I found a good Web site that I wasn't aware of, and wanted to share some findings: FAA Office of Civil Aviation Security Criminal Acts Against Civil Aviation http://cas.faa.gov/crimacts/ This is really great reading. Every year (in about July for the previous year - nothing on 2001 yet), the FAA produces a detailed analysis of trends in hijacking, explosives, etc. involving civil aviation. It's intended to be exhaustive, with data from around the world. As we've all probably noticed, no US-based civil aviation incident goes unreported in the popular press. Hijackings and airline bombings, when they occur, are big news. I was surprised to see that the number of US-registered air carriers involved in hijackings (and most other acts the FAA considers in these reports) from 1992 - 2000 is zero. This stuff happens to non-US airlines, and usually outside of the US. Hijacking count by year (all incidents; total for US is 0 in all years): 2000 20 1999 11 1998 9 1997 10 1996 14 1995 9 1994 23 1993 31 1992 12 Bombings and attempted bombings is steady at close to zero across 1992 - 2000, with either 1 or 0 in all years worldwide (except 3 in 1994). Incidents tend to occur in Asia, Latin America and the Middle East, with fewer in Europe than might be expected and across the board very few in North America. The FAA's categories are: - "Hijackings of Civil Aviation Aircraft," - "Commandeerings of Civil Aviation Aircraft," (when the plane is on the ground at the start of the incident) - "Bombings/Attempted Bombings/ Shootings on Civil Aviation Aircraft," - "Shootings at In-Flight Aircraft," - "Attacks at Airports," - "Off-Airport Facility Attacks," and - "Incidents Involving Charter and General Aviation Aircraft." They specifically do not include incidents involving military aircraft, and exclude most incidents that occur in wartorn areas. (A note to the alert: I don't think TWA 800's explosion in 1996 appears in these reports, as the cause was not determined as of July 1997 when the 1996 report came out. Reports are only available online 1996-2000, and cover a 5-year period -- that's why I don't go back further.) >From the evidence in these reports, you might form several different hypotheses: - The world suddenly turned much more dangerous in 2001 (at least the US part of the world). - Airport security in the US is truly exceptional, resulting in a disproportionally small number of reportable incidents. - For a variety of reasons, the US and US-based airlines have just not been as attractive to criminals as non-US. (This is at least partially true: a lot of incidents involve people seeking political asylum -- people don't get on a jet at JFK to seek asylum in the US [or on a jet headed towards JFK], as they're already there! The reports comment on this several times.) - The US media and government trend of refusing to acknowledge or even publicize the demands of hijackers has decreased the appeal (other countries have followed suit with this approach). Remember Tommy Lee Jones in "The Fugitive?" "I don't negotiate." Whatever angle you take, there seems to be pretty damned good airline security in the US and for US-based airlines. Here's a quote from the 2000 report, in which the number of incidents overall nearly doubled (to 42) from the prior 3 years: "During the past few years, the relatively low number of incidents that were recorded may have been interpreted as an indication that the threat to civil aviation was decreasing. The fact that the number of aviation-related incidents in 2000 increased by 75% proves such an interpretation to be premature. To be sure, the threat to civil aviation has not significantly decreased. In addition to the ever-present threat of a terrorist hijacking or bombing, an individual who hijacks a plane to seek asylum, a guerrilla group that attacks an airport, or a terrorist group that bombs an airline ticket office, constitutes a threat as well. The increase in the number of incidents in 2000 attests to the fact that civil aviation continues to be a target of terrorists and non-terrorists alike." (p. 47) -- Greg