How not to use a mirror
"And ye shall know the truth, and the truth shall make you free. (John 8:32)"
This biblical phrase is carved on the portal of the Central Intelligence
Agency headquarters located in Langley, Virginia, in the United States. The
Book of John contains the story of Jesus Christ performing a miracle by
bringing a dead man back to life. The CIA seems to be telling its members
to treat intelligence like the truth, because intelligence protects the
life of the United States.
A nation's intelligence activities consist of four branches: intelligence
gathering, information analysis, undercover operation and anti-espionage.
Researchers say being seduced by one's own "mirror image" is a key cause of
intelligence failure. This refers to a phenomenon in which intelligence
analysts are captured by their own way of thinking and fail to see the
enemy as it is.
The analyst's mentality is compared with that of Narcissus, a handsome
youth in Greek mythology who was fascinated by his own appearance reflected
on the surface of a pool of water. He drowns himself to gain freedom from
self worship. In psychoanalysis, the infantile ego-forming period, from 6
months to 18 months after birth, is called the "mirror stage."
Intelligence experts cite the 1973 surprise attack by Egypt-Syria forces on
Israel as a prime example of intelligence failure, resulting from the
mirror image phenomenon. At that time Israel concluded that Arab nations
would not bring on a war they could not win. Right before the surprise
attack, General Moshe Dyan was assured that "since Israel has the advantage
in armed forces and Arab nations know this, they will not take hostile
action." Actually Egypt's president, Anwar al Sadat, shared General Dyan's
assessment. But the Egyptian leader concluded that a war was needed to
correct the imbalance. The intelligence failure by Israel was due to the
naive assumption that Mr. Sadat would be rational like Israel.
Analyses are rife on North Korea's intention to announce its withdrawal
from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. The majority of them seem to
construe the North's intention as a ploy toward the United States for a
guarantee of the North's security. Is this the mirror image effect, judging
Pyeongyang on the basis of our own rationality? That one day North Korea
may announce, "We have nuclear weapons" is horrible to contemplate.
The writer is a deputy political news editor of the JoongAng Ilbo.
by Chun Young-gi
http://joongangdaily.joins.com/200301/15/200301152304304579900090809081.html