Small update: the problem is definitely not disk space in /boot, which has some 400MB free. However, I couldn't do any other testing because the machine is now showing symptoms of a severe hardware fault - freezes to the point of requiring a physical power cycle less than a minute after power-on (with kernel 3.16), subsequent boot doesn't even get out of the BIOS before doing the same thing. I doubt this bug was another symptom of the same problem because it was so very predictable, but I suppose kernel 4.0 might've been predictably allocating some critical piece of data to a page of RAM that no longer works, or like that. Anyway, I'll get back to this bug eventually but I will need to nail down the hardware fault first, and if I wind up having to replace the motherboard it's probable that that will perturb the bug out of manifesting :-/
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