What you could do is calculate the average allocation size and std deviantions in a moving window, and the z-score for each freelist and use this lookup table:

https://www.stat.tamu.edu/~lzhou/stat302/standardnormaltable.pdf

If P < 0.10 (maybe use this as a setting) this means the probability of the next allocations going through this freelist is too low and you can decide to tighten the freelist and let the deallocations fall through to the underlying allocator.

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