On Sunday, 16 September 2018 at 04:47:11 UTC, Joakim wrote:
On Sunday, 16 September 2018 at 01:03:27 UTC, Dave Jones wrote:
I know a lot of people who did, which explains the 28% drop
in PC sales since they peaked in 2011, the year after the
iPad came out. Many of those people who used to buy PCs have
switched to tablets and other mobile devices.
Yet PC sales are up this year, mobile is down, and tablet
sales have fallen for 3 years in a row.
Eh, these are all mostly mature markets now, so slight
quarterly dips or gains don't matter much anymore. What does it
matter that PC sales were up 2-3% last quarter when 7 times as
many smartphones and mobile devices were sold in that same
quarter?
Some analysts have predicted that PC sales will plateau at some
point and if that's where we're at now then 30% drop in shipments
is not death of the market.
I say that almost 30% drop in PC sales over the last 7 years is
mostly due to the rise of mobile.
I think a large part of it is that PCs got fast enough for most
people about 7-10 years ago. So it was a combination of mobile,
and people no longer needing to get newer faster machines. The
upgrade cycle moved from "I need a newer faster computer" to
"I'll wait till my current system is worn out". (For a lot of
people anyway)
And just because there's been a trend for 5 or 6 years doesnt
mean it will continue so inevitably.
Sure, but these trends almost never reverse. ;)
It doesnt need to reverse for "the PC is dead" to be false.
I actually think most people would prefer a separate desktop
and mobile device, whether that desktop is just the size of
pack of cigarettes, or a big box with 5 fans in it.
Why? Given how price-sensitive the vast majority of the
computing-buying public is- that excludes the Apple sheeple who
actually seem to get a hard-on from rising iPhone prices, all
the better for them to show how much money they've lucked into
by brandishing their "gold" iPhone ;) - I don't see most
willing to spend twice on two devices, that could be replaced
by just one. Until recently, they didn't have a choice, as you
couldn't use your mobile device as a desktop, but the
just-released devices I linked in the first post in this thread
are starting to change that.
Because for about £300 you can get an intel NUC system with 120GB
SSD, which is more powerful and more upgradeable than your £700
mobile device. And some people still want that. And because most
people have more than one TV, some have multiple phones, phones
and tablets, and desktops, and multiple games consoles. And they
still use them all in different situations.
This "one device" thing is your preference and you're projecting
it onto everyone else.
Yes you can bring up examples of people who made mistakes
predicting the future but that works both ways. You're just as
guilty of seeing a two points and drawing a straight line
though them.
Except none of these examples or my own prediction are based on
simple extrapolation between data points. Rather, we're
analyzing the underlying technical details and capabilities and
coming to different conclusions about whether the status quo is
likely to remain. So I don't think any of us are "guilty" of
your charge.
Of course you are, you're making predictions and assuming the
trends will continue, you assume the technical details are all
important. Im saying they are only part of it, that people have
requirements / preferences outside of how powerful the device is.
Lots of people were predicting ebooks would kill the real book
market a few years back, turns out people still prefer to have an
actual paper book to read, ebooks peaked a few years ago and real
books have been in growth ever since. That was people seeing a
trend and assuming it would continue just like you are.
