Id be interested, but I wonder if there would be other places to get such a device that wouldnt be so back ordered, and would also like to consider other types of coin as far as ROI speed. Id probably prefer a shorter term ROI, then a longer term , more profitable operation. As in persue something that short term might make money now, then play the long game
On Mon, Jun 24, 2013 at 2:40 PM, Mark Jenkins <m...@parit.ca> wrote: > On 06/23/13 22:05, Jim MacKenzie wrote: > >> That's actually pretty cool. I might start doing some bit coin mining. >> If for nothing else free humble bundles. >> > > I'd be open to putting in $75 into a pooled partnership purchase with a > group of trusted Skullspacers for a Butterfly Labs ASIC Bitcoin mining > machine. > (choice of model would depend on total size of pool, smallest model, 5 > GH/s SC is $274.00 USD ) > > To anyone thinking about it, there are several investment risks > * Chances that Butterfly labs will stay in business and deliver > > * Potential effects from other ASIC machines joining the network, > including the large number of efficient BFL machines being sold and shipped > before us. > > * Potential effects from major USD per BTC price swings. > (though keep in mind, a major price drop could cause many other less > efficient miners to drop out and vice versa, a major price jump could cause > a lot of other competing mining capacity to be brought online much faster) > > * All of the above being compounded by the big time gap between order > time and delivery time. To BFL's credit, they are picking up steam and > closing this gap -- beginning of June 2013 they were shipping June 25, > *2012* orders. As of this past Friday they were shipping orders from > September 7, *2012*. We'd still need to be patient. > > * Returning to the first point (stability of the business), some > customers are so unhappy with the backlog that lawsuits are in the works > (and/or already filed). But, my impression is that for all the angry voices > there are just a ton of quiet customers who are just patiently waiting as > they expect decent returns from their really old pre-orders and that BFL > has a pretty good operating line thanks to all these patient pre-orders not > being refunded. > > > I would not want to co-locate such a fine money-printing machine at > Skullspace (it practically screams "steal me!") -- would negotiate with > fellow pool members on which of us can best handle co-location and > appropriate compensation for such. Even if it isn't as attractive a beast > by the time we get it, price shocks and mining capacity shocks could make > it go from being a "whatever" device to super valuable in the course of a > day, faster than we can yank it to safety. > > And I'd be open to making group decisions with votes proportional to each > participants investment and not like a co-op "one member, one vote". > > Given all of the above factors, especially delivery delay meaning that a > lot more capacity will be on the network by the time we join in, I would > not expect a fabulous return. A low power 5GH/s machine looks so juicy when > you punch it in to a mining calculator with today's difficulty and BTC/USD > price: > http://www.alloscomp.com/**bitcoin/calculator<http://www.alloscomp.com/bitcoin/calculator> > > $4880 gross annual revenue. > > If you assume $20/month for collocation, and expense the entire > acquisition cost over the year (that is, assume the device has no market > value after a year), and also add in the cost of obtaining a cheap host > computer and compensating someone for setup (also expensed over the whole > year) as say $150, then you'd get a net-income in the first operating year > of: > 4880 - 274 - 150 - 20*12 = 4216 > > For an upfront capital cost of $424 that's a 4216/424 = 900% annual ROI. > You have to adjust that down for the months that the $274 sunk into > pre-order isn't earning anything, but I won't bother with the calculations. > > But don't get giddy. With other miners coming online it's going to be a > lot less profitable by the time we get it and less and less so over the > operating life, so return could be negative. > > Personally, I'll be cool with less given my perceptions of the risk > factors and with the small amount I'm prepared to put in to it. I'll > probably patiently hold on to most of the BTC I receive from the group in > dividends, especially if the combination of mining difficulty and USD/BTC > makes them a terrible ROI at the moment they're received. > > > > Mark > ______________________________**_________________ > SkullSpace Discuss Mailing List > Help: > http://www.skullspace.ca/wiki/**index.php/Mailing_List#Discuss<http://www.skullspace.ca/wiki/index.php/Mailing_List#Discuss> > Archive: > https://groups.google.com/**group/skullspace-discuss-**archive/<https://groups.google.com/group/skullspace-discuss-archive/> >
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