Mark wrote:
Consider the opinion of one of the Paypal founders Peter Thiel (also an
angel investor in Facebook), who I don't think is a bitcoin evangelist
but a more sobre interested observer. He thinks Bitcoin has about a 20%
chance of becoming a success.
http://www.coindesk.com/figures-come-out-for-against-bitcoin/
Scratch that, this article from today paints a more bitcoin evangelistic
perspective of Thiel:
http://www.coindesk.com/peter-thiel-claims-bitcoin-potential-change-world/
His VC firm is invested in BitPay, and he's a long time libertarian, so
not someone you can cite as informed and neutral when trying to put a
chance of failure number on the high risk, high reward nature of taking
a position in bitcoin.
The authors of the article treat the 20% figure as somehow still being
bearish, but as I pointed out before it is nothing of the sort. If you
think bitcoin has a 20% chance of success (80% fail), you're still a
bull at current prices when you measure that risk against the returns
even minimal success would imply.
(which of course doesn't imply anyone should go "all in")
-------
I'll going to take this opportunity to announce that Skullspace now has
some long term skin in the game. Ian kicked in $50 on Monday that will
be the seed for a /Skullspace Bitcoin Endowment Trust/ that will hold a
little bit of Bitcoin for the sake of the Skullspace of the future.
Stefan, Ian, and myself are going to be the initial trustees for this.
We're going to be using a 2 of 3 XOR based scheme that I've designed and
am presenting at BSides. Each of us will hold only 1/3 of the actual
private key and an additional 2/3 of 32 bytes (256 bit) each that allows
any 2 out of 3 of us to come together and recover the full 32 bytes (256
bit) key.
As such, two out of three trustees will be our vote structure for
determining when we liquidate funds out of this in the years ahead for
the beneficiary of this trust, Skullspace.
It's like three disk RAID 5, if one of us can no longer "serve" or loses
his piece of the scheme, we'll restore redundancy by generating a new
key / address / 2 of 3 set and move the coin there.
We'll post the first bitcoin address of this after we establish it.
Other contributions will of course be welcome, but I hope we don't get
too many. Why? The idea is to save a small amount of this high risk,
potential high return asset for Skullspace's long term. It would be
unfortunate if we diverted too many of the really great contributions
Skullspace receives for short term needs. Remember folks, Skullspace has
one hell of a lease and not a lot of discretionary funds, there won't be
a Skullspace of the future if we don't continue to doing a great job
supporting it short term.
Ultimately our trust can keep this in balance I guess, if 2 out of 3 of
us think our endowment fund is getting overfunded and Skullspace of
today under funded, we can simply liquidate some and give to Skullspace.
As trustees, we make no promise as to how long we will sit and hold for,
but I'm personally hoping we hold a good chunk at least until the end of
when the current lease expires. (2 years?)
We are going to put all mining profits after tomorrow into this trust,
as they're getting pretty small per month now. The mining profits from
this past month are still going to market of course, and from the looks
of it at pretty decent premium over the suggested SELL SELL SELL when
this thread started.
But I'm not gloating over sticking to the original plan hatched in July.
It totally could of gone the other way. And there's still 26 hours for
us to hold our breath on what this 0.175+ BTC will go for:
https://blockchain.info/address/14eS3vDCn66Dy7N1PJXA7KTULPirfCJJeW
See some of you at 2pm tomorrow.
Mark
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