The retracement of the equities markets recent declines could support
the single currency putting pressure on the gold and the greenback.
The stock markets could gain on better than expected outlook of
Citibank profits in the beginning of this year. Citibank stock has
fallen last week below 1$ before creeping up on the current market
expectations of achieving profits in the first quarter of this year.
The banking sector stocks could drive the indices higher pushing Dow
above 6900 and S&P 500 above 700 again.
The gold has fallen below 900$ on this same optimistic market
sentiment yesterday but it is trading above it right now on doubts
about the ability of keeping these gains and confidence.
The British pound could not enjoy the single currency appreciation
versus the greenback on this optimism as the recent BOE announcement
that it is ready to buy further governmental gilts in a quantitive
easing policy could contain the market sentiment putting pressure on
the British pound since last week BOE cutting interest rate by
another .5% to be just .5%.
In this same time and in the beginning of this week, the single
currency has had underpinning from the European finance ministers'
rejection of new stimulation packages in Brussels in spite of the US
encouraging for these actions which should increase the government's
role changing the current fiscal structure position in the face of the
crisis.
This quantitive easing policies should put pressure on the currency
from increasing the supplied money from a side and from increasing the
budget deficit from another side which can threat total economy
creditability and the currency buying value and this European refusing
of widening their current budget liabilities could underpin the single
currency versus the pound and the greenback on the market focusing on
the central banks actions after reaching very low interest rate levels
and this sentiment can continue supporting the single currency as this
current European conservative position comparing with US.

There was no data to move the currency market in the recent few days
but we wait later this week the release of US retails sales of Feb
which is expected to fall by .4% monthly and also the US trade balance
deficit which is expected to be shrunk to 38.2b$ in Jan.

Best wishes

FX Consultant
Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: m...@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com

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