SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP002 ARLP002 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP02 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 2 ARLP002 >From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA January 12, 2007 To all radio amateurs
SB PROP ARL ARLP002 ARLP002 Propagation de K7RA Average daily sunspot numbers for the week more than doubled from the previous seven days, rising 24 points to 43.4. This is a nice number for what should be the bottom of the sunspot cycle. Gene Hastings, W1VRK of Marblehead, Massachusetts has kept a regular weekly 20 meter phone QSO with G3LMH for over 40 years. Last Friday, January 5 at 1400z, the signals were unusually strong, surprising both operators. Gene said signals of late have been running about S3, so this was a welcome change. If we compare conditions a week earlier, using a propagation forecasting program, with zero sunspots on December 29, 20 meters was likely just opening over that path at that time, and the chances of them working on the next higher band, 17 meters, would be nil. But a week later, with sunspot numbers for Thursday through Saturday of 36, 43 and 47, the band would open at least 90 minutes earlier, and 17 meters would be open as well. What if a year from today the sunspot numbers over several days were running around 80? He could expect the band to be open all day, with the opening about two hours prior to his regular schedule. Also, 17, 15 and even 12 meters would likely be open, and a good chance of working G3LMH on 10 meters as well an hour or two later. Currently sunspots 930 and 937 are disappearing off the visible solar disk. Sunspot numbers should be lower over the next few days, but geomagnetic conditions should be stable. We probably won't see unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions until January 16-17, and later a bit more active around January 30. Sunspot numbers and solar flux should run higher again from January 27 through February 7. If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at, [EMAIL PROTECTED] For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at, http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html. For a detailed explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin see, http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/k9la-prop.html. An archive of past propagation bulletins is at, http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/. Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at, http://www.arrl.org/qst/propcharts/. Sunspot numbers for January 4 through 10 were 36, 43, 47, 46, 52, 41 and 39 with a mean of 43.4. 10.7 cm flux was 89.4, 89.4, 87.3, 86.7, 88, 92.2, and 86.2, with a mean of 88.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 16, 9, 3, 2, 4, 4 and 7 with a mean of 6.4. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 13, 6, 2, 1, 2, 3 and 4, with a mean of 4.4. NNNN /EX ---------------------------------------------------------- Archives http://www.mail-archive.com/dx-news@njdxa.org THE DXR is sponsored by the North Jersey DX Association. Please visit our website: http://www.njdxa.org/index.php scroll to bottom for subscribe/unsubscribe options ----------------------------------------------------------
