SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP046 ARLP046 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP46 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 46 ARLP046 >From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA November 18, 2011 To all radio amateurs
SB PROP ARL ARLP046 ARLP046 Propagation de K7RA This week geomagnetic indices quieted a bit, and so did solar activity in general. Sunspot numbers reached a high of 220 on November 9, and this week declined, rose to 176 then declined again. Average daily sunspot numbers slipped 8.4 points to 145. Average daily solar flux dropped 12.5 points to 161.2. The most recent forecast predicts a bit lower activity than we've seen recently. Predicted solar flux from NOAA and USAF shows flux values of 150 on November 18-19, 155 on November 20-24, 150 on November 25, and 145 on November 26-28, then rising to 165 on December 4-7, which is just a few days before the ARRL 10 Meter Contest. Predicted planetary A index for November 18-19 is 7 and 8, then 5 on November 20-25, 7 on November 26-27, and 5 on November 28 through December 8. Geophysical Institute Prague has their own take, with unsettled conditions November 18, quiet to unsettled November 19, and quiet November 20-24. Conditions should be good for the ARRL SSB Sweepstakes Contest this weekend, which runs from 2100z Saturday, November 19, until 0259z Monday, November 21. See http://www.arrl.org/sweepstakes for full details. Space.com has an interesting article concerning whether or not the Sun is really headed for a grand minima, as some have suggested. The study they cite suggests that an increase in solar activity over the next few decades is just as likely as a decrease. In other words, nobody knows! See the article at http://www.space.com/13660-solar-activity-cycle-grand-minimum.html. Jimmy Mahuron, K9JWJ of Salem, Indiana pointed out that the sunspot record at http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/DSD.txt no longer matches what we've reported in past bulletins. I have an inquiry to NOAA about this. We reported a sunspot number of 220 on November 9, but now that same source shows 208 for that day. More on this next week, no doubt. Lots of fun to be had on 10 and 6 meters over the past week. Chuck Dennis, WA5ZTD wrote: "Your article about 10 meters being open was sure right. 11/11/2011 at around 9 AM PST (1700z) on just 100 watts and a buddipole up about 20 feet from Hillsboro Oregon, I was able to work IK4WKU in northern Italy and I heard a station in northern Ireland, Argentina, and Brazil. Sure hope it lasts a while." Tad Marko, KC5UWS of Flower Mound, Texas writes: "The QRP story in your recent ARRL Propagation update reminds me of my recent first QRP contact. I have had a Yaesu FT-817 for a while now, but had yet to make a contact with it as of 2011-10-26. I had just gotten home from work, the kids were playing outside and I had a few minutes before dinner, so I attached my Miracle Whip antenna to the '817 and carried it outside. I perched it precariously atop a short ladder and started tuning up the 10m band. At 28.430 I hear a CQ and make out '4MAX' from the call. I'm thinking maybe I'm making 800 miles or so to the east coast. I reply, not expecting anything, but I get a response. It's VK4MAX in Queensland Australia! My first QRP contact is 5w to go 8,300 miles using a compact antenna! He was a solid 59 on my end, and though I was only 41 on his end, he was able to copy my call sign and we had a short QSO. He was absolutely astounded and so was I. This was a very timely contact as I was about to give up on QRP. I know this isn't typical, but it sure was fun." Actually Tad, it may be more typical than you think! We hear many such stories lately with all the recent solar activity. 6 meter reports are from K7JA and K7CW. Chip Margelli, K7JA of Garden Grove, California wrote: "Worked LU9EHF on November 14 at 0136 UTC on 50 MHz SSB via F2. Also VY2OX and VY2ZM November 15, around 1835 UTC along with VE2DLC and several W1 stations. "Earlier QSOs included ZL1RS on November 1 (around 2325 UTC), ZL1RS also on October 24 at 2234 UTC, TX7M on October 25 at 1945 UTC, E51CG on October 26 at 0143 UTC, and VK4FNQ and VK4BKP on October 26 around 0150 UTC." Paul Kiesel, K7CW of Tahuya, Washington wrote: "I got T32C and FO4BM on October 13. This might have been Es link to TEP. On October 24 I worked FK8CP and on October 26, I worked seven VK4 stations. I think these contacts likely were Es link to F2 due to the high angle to the perpendicular with the geomagnetic equator. "The last couple of days (November 13-15), I've gotten VEs 1, 2, 3 and 9 and VY2 along with Ws 1, 2, 3 and 4. Today (November 15) had propagation all the way down to South Florida, whereas yesterday and the day before were limited to the northern states and southern Canada." And finally, if you love Morse code, don't miss this unusual video in which Kristen Haring talks about knitting in Morse code patterns. She wrote a book a few years back called "Ham Radio's Technical Culture" which many radio amateurs hated, but I found unusual and quite interesting. Thanks to W0PV for the tip: http://www.youtube.com/user/OHSTcolloquia#p/a/u/1/hoiuYw5pVQ4 If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at, k...@arrl.net. For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service web page at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. Find more good information and tutorials on propagation at http://myplace.frontier.com/~k9la/. Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation. Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins. Sunspot numbers for November 10 through 16 were 152, 127, 155, 142, 176, 137, and 126, with a mean of 145. 10.7 cm flux was 178.6, 173.9, 168.8, 155.3, 161.1, 148.3, and 142.3, with a mean of 161.2. Estimated planetary A indices were 3, 2, 2, 0, 0, 6, and 2, with a mean of 2.1. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 3, 3, 3, 2, 3, 7, and 3 with a mean of 3.4. NNNN /EX ----------------------------------------------------------- To unsubscribe or subscribe to this list. Please send a message to imail...@njdxa.org In the message body put either unsubscribe dx-news or subscribe dx-news This is the DX-NEWS reflector sponsored by the NJDXA http://njdxa.org -----------------------------------------------------------