I have so little data - been busy - that I could use any regression technique ;)
Statistically speaking, this line fit is poor and should not be used for
decisions.
A great public service would be e-gold saving these stats once a day in an
accessible log. Include the stats page and the exchange rate.
One way to justify the work for them is that college students can then us it for
study --> get them while young! I think JP's stats challenges are extremely
useful and if we all had accesses to the same set of data we could have a lot
more fun and generate a little more buzz.
[EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
> That's the second entry so far, Jeff --- you may win by default!
>
> I'm sure, though, the curve for e-gold daily transactions would have
> to be fitted to some sort of quadratic?
>
> >This can't be right but ... using all the VERY spotty data I have
> >Total Days USD
> >0 878,826
> >12 1,406,435
> >20 1,505,357
> >26 2,579,490
> >34 1,074,743
> >67 1,375,354
> >
> >And using the Canadian dollar that trades about 200,000 contracts per day
> >http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/CD/M
> >Each contract is worth 100,000 Canadian dollars or about 66,000 USD.
> >200,000 x 66,000 = 1.3e10
> >
> >A simple linear regression results in y=ax+b
> >y=3396x + 1380028
> >((1.3e10 - 1380028)/3396)/365 = 10,000 years
> >
> >But maybe the contracts are double counted (a trade has a buyer and seller so
> >that volume might = 2?) so maybe 5,000 years
> >
> >Answer, using my simple 6 points of data, a really long time because this set
> >of data has a pretty flat slope. If you only use the first 4 rows of data,
> >e-gold could rival CD in 300-600 years :)
> >
> >Right now daily e-gold turnover is 0.01% (one one hundredth of a percent) of
> >Canadian dollar turnover. That's pretty good considering.
> >
> >Thanks, Jeff
> >
> >[EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
> >
> >> Well, we have ONE answer in for the stats contest! Not the longest
> >> answer, but that will win it if it's the only one!
> >>
> >> >Hello
> >> >
> >> >
> >> >Answer to your contest question - Some time between 8 and 9 months
> >> >from now. -Barb
> >>
> >> >jic> "When will the daily transaction volume
> >> >jic> of e-gold first begin to rival the daily
> >> >jic> transaction volume of one of the smaller
> >> >jic> national currencies?"
> >>
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> >
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