Julian,
Bear in mind that this is all guess work. The facts we actually know
are
few and while they may suggest our conclusions they by no means prove
them. Our conclusions are certain to be wrong. The only question is
whether or not they are completely wrong.
> 1. How many of the funded accounts belong to HYIP investors? One reputable
> market maker says 90% of e-gold buyers are in it for the HYIPs; another has
> told me it's about 60%. So let's split the difference and say it's 75%, or
> about 75,000 accounts.
I find that plausible. But even if 75,000 accounts originated from HYIP
marks it doesn't follow that all these accounts are in active HYIP
use. It seems more plausible to me that after being parted from their
money most of the scamees have left the accounts abandoned with
a tiny residual balance. Indeed, there are only 34,250 accounts with
balances over a gram which is consistent with this. This suggests that
a more reasonable figure for the number of accounts that *could* be
active
in HYIPs would be 25,000.
> 2. How much in gold-spending per 24-hour period does each of those accounts
> generate?
I don't find your proposed HYIP money path
MM -> mark -> HYIP -> mark -> MM
to be very likely. I think what actually happens is more like the
following.
MM -> mark -> HYIP --|
^ |
|____________|
The money never really goes back to a market maker. After all, in the
end,
the money does not end up in the scammees account for him to
outexchange! Nor
does this cycle necessarily happen each day for each dollar as you seem
to
be assuming.
I am not entirely certain what the figures you quote ("$9 million
changed
hands") about E-Biz mean. At that time I believe that e-gold's total
reserves
were about $10 million so it is not likely that E-Biz marks paid in that
much to the e-gold system unless the E-Biz operators were so quick to
convert their income back to $ that they would not have had any gold to
circulate in their scheme. Perhaps this figure is the total that
circulated?
However, assume, anyway, that this was the total amount paid in (that
gives each of the 22,000 marks about $400 which perhaps may be a little
high but is in the ballpark). What is a typical HYIP "return"? 300%
per
month? If so then the total in circulation would circulate about 3
times
in a month. That would be $27 million per month or about $1 million
per day. Which would be doubled when the mark pays the money back to
the HYIP. As I recall, the velocity during E-Biz was running $3-5
million
per day (perhaps someone else with records or a better memory can
correct
me on this) so this is also in the ballpark.
> 3. How much in gold-spending per 24-hour period do HYIPs generate
> altogether?
If M is the money in the HYIP and R is the daily rate of return (it is
pretending to pay) then the daily spending (velocity) it generates is
unrelated to the number of marks and is about the following.
2*M*R
The number of spends made would be proportional to the number of marks.
I suggested before that most of the number of spends might be generated
by HYIPs making small spends while most of the velocity might be
generated
by a relatively small number of large spends. This suggestion is
corroborated by examining the neat new spend breakdowns.
The 6794 spends between 0 and 10g account for a maximum of 15515g.
The 1115 spends between 10g and 10kg account for a minimum 47150g.
Thus it is unlikely that HYIP circulation (they are unlikely to be
making
many payments over 10g) accounts for more than a small fraction of the
velocity at the present.
Best,
CCS
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