Hello David, Isn't your model a bit too abstract, yet at the same time incomplete as it does not allow for growing population and continued reduction in arable land?
What I mean to say is that due to continued net growth in population (allowing for reductions in some industrialized nations being balanced through the influx of immigrants from nations that continue to experience population growth), land becomes relatively more scarce, independently from the prevailing interest and rental factors. Adding to this the continued reduction of arable land and the growth and expansion of natural desserts and man-made infertile soils (over-irrigation, over-fertilization, etc.), the amount of usable land is gradually decreasing. Now, if that holds true, and it possibly will for decades to come, then arable land might in fact become scarce enough to become more valuable than average residential properties. The resoning behind this claim would be that in order to feed an ever larger population, one will need to start using barren areas to build greenhouses, clean up the spoil, use hydroponic growth methods, etc. The currently high cost of such installations makes it unfeasible due to the low cost of overly available foodstuffs. However, if the amount of available food starts to decrease and the requirement for more food continues to increase, food prices will increase. Higher food prices will warrant more investments into food production facilities which in turn will first lead to a sharp rise in the value of agricultural land - until the prices reach a level at which they will be at par with the cost of geening barren areas, building floating orchards, etc. On a side note, *some* land that has not not been polluted through pesticides, etc. could proof an invaluable source of fresh water... Not to reduce the obvious work you have already put into the model and formulae it is based on (great job by the way) but unless we are able to manipulate fractuals into any type of matter at will (which would then make gold useless as money), we are depending on each square foot of soil more than on anything else on the planet - unless we kill off a billion or two of the inhabitants and start using their land to grow our food in say, three generations... Cheers, Robert. budget & privacy website hosting http://www.cyberica.net start a profitable online business http://www.cyberfrontier.biz budget domain registrations http://www.u2planet.com --- You are currently subscribed to e-gold-list as: [EMAIL PROTECTED] To unsubscribe send a blank email to [EMAIL PROTECTED] Use e-gold's Secure Randomized Keyboard (SRK) when accessing your e-gold account(s) via the web and shopping cart interfaces to help thwart keystroke loggers and common viruses.
