----- forwarded message -----
Date: Tue, 20 Feb 2001 11:34:07 +0100
From: info <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Subject: World Disasters Seen As Global Warming Outcome
----- forwarded message -----
Subject: [MLNews!*] World Disasters Seen As Global Warming Outcome
Date: Mon, 19 Feb 2001 21:46:17 -0800 (PST)
From: Paul Pureau <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Monday February 19 7:51 PM ET
World Disasters Seen As Global Warming Outcome
By Robert Evans
GENEVA (Reuters) - Massive flooding, disease and
drought could hit rich and poor countries around the
world over coming decades if global warming is not
halted, an authoritative U.N. scientific team warned
Monday.
The scientists said they foresaw glaciers and polar
icecaps melting, countless species of animals, birds
and plant life dying out, farmland turning to desert,
fish-supporting coral reefs destroyed, and small
island states sunk beneath the sea.
The disaster scenario, with its major impact on the
global economy, was set out in a 1,000-page report by
the U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC), which links nearly 3,000 experts in dozens of
countries and has been studying the warming problem
since 1990.
``Projected climate changes during the 21st century
have the potential to lead to future large-scale and
possibly irreversible changes in Earth systems, resulting in
impacts on continental and global scales,'' the report
said.
``Climate change in polar regions is expected to be
among the greatest of any region on the Earth,''
declared a Summary for Policymakers agreed at a meeting of
IPCC scientists and officials of over 100 governments
in Geneva last week.
Hinting at sharper global social conflict to come, it
said poorer countries, and the poorest people in rich
countries, would suffer the most -- increasing the
North-South divide and the poverty gap in the United
States and Europe.
Poor Less Able To Adapt
The effects of a surge in hurricanes, floods, higher
temperatures and water shortages ``are expected to
fall disproportionately on the poor because they are less able
to adapt,'' Harvard professor James McCarthy told a
news conference.
McCarthy, one of the authors of the report, said
farming in tropical and sub-tropical regions would be
worst hit ``and tens of millions of people will be at risk from
sea-level rise.''
The report is the second of four to be issued this
year as governments gird up for a fresh effort to
shape a pact on how to tackle the warming problem and avert
disaster.
Last month the first report said the earth's
atmosphere was warming faster than the IPCC initially
thought and largely because of human activity -- use of
carbon-based fossil fuels, industrial pollution and
destruction of forests and wetlands.
Next month in Accra, Ghana, the body is to issue a
third report looking at what can be done to slow the
process and help people, animals and plant life to adapt to
irreversible change.
In September, a final report will put the conclusions
into one major document which the scientists and
environmentalists -- as well as insurance companies
and new,
clean energy industries -- hope will prod political
leaders to action.
In parts of the scientific community, the IPCC has
critics who say there is no solid evidence for unusual
global warming.
Producers and users of fuels like coal and oil also
deny it, as do opponents of the U.N. who suggest the
IPCC is part of a plot to install a world government of
international bureaucrats.
Saudis, Chinese Said To Resist
Diplomats involved in last week's closed-door Geneva
sessions said Saudi Arabia, a major oil producer, and
industrial giant China delayed approval of the Summary
for Policymakers by arguing over almost every line of
the text.
But mainstream scientists, even outside the wide
embrace of the IPCC, say the work it has done over the
past 10 years has ended debate on whether warming is
taking place and moved it on to measures that need to
be taken.
IPCC backers hope the reports will push governments to
try harder after they failed at a meeting in the Hague
last November to agree on reducing carbon, or
``greenhouse gas,'' emissions.
That meeting focused on implementing a protocol
negotiated in Kyoto in 1997 on cutting emissions from
fossil fuel use. The governments meet again in Bonn in
May.
Monday's report warned that the United States -- where
skepticism about warming is strong in the new
administration -- would not escape a rise in flooding and
storms that have caused billions of dollars in damage
in recent years.
Environmental Body Urges U.S. Action
In a comment on the report, the global conservation
body WWF's Washington-based Climate Change Campaign
director Jennifer Morgan said the IPCC findings
showed that ``it is time for governments such as the
United States to get serious about reducing their
carbon dioxide emissions.''
The Dutch-based environmental group Greenpeace said
the report revealed a ``climate emergency'' which the
world's richest nations needed to tackle urgently.
The IPCC said northern hemisphere countries would
probably become hotter, bringing a rise in deaths from
heat stroke in cities and diseases until now restricted to
tropical areas, like malaria and mortal viral
infections.
Africa -- with its already severe economic and social
problems -- would be most vulnerable. Disease levels
could shoot up, especially in crowded cities along the
continent's coasts which could also face inundation as
sea levels rise.
In Asia, it said, mangrove forests that protect river
and sea banks could be swamped, especially in
Bangladesh. Forest fires could become more frequent and
warmer conditions could increase the spread of
infectious disease.
Asian Ice Melt To Bring Water Shortage
The melting of glaciers in the Himalayas, which feed
river systems providing water to around 500 million
people, could cause huge flooding and then massive water
shortages.
Much of Latin America, from Mexico to Argentina, could
see a decline in crop yields, deciduous tropical
forests could shrink and new diseases spread, while
renowned wildlife like the Central American quetzal
bird could disappear.
Other animals that could vanish included the polar
bear, penguins, the Bengal tiger and the central
African mountain gorilla.
In Europe, southern countries were more likely to be
affected, with an increased risk of water shortage and
a deterioration in soil quality that would affect
agriculture.
Australia, the report said, could face a major threat
to agriculture as drought spread. In the Middle East,
political tension could be heightened and slide into
wars
over water resources as rivers dried out.
=====
Paul Pureau
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