Just when we thought that sea level is no longer a problem, now we are told
that...
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Global warming could be twice as bad as forecast
Tue May 19, 2009 4:42pm EDT
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Global warming's effects this century could be twice as
extreme as estimated just six years ago, scientists reported on Tuesday.
Earth's median surface temperature could rise 9.3 degrees F (5.2 degrees C) by
2100, the scientists at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology found,
compared to a 2003 study that projected a median temperature increase of 4.3
degrees F (2.4 degrees C).
The new study, published in the American Meteorological Society's Journal of
Climate, said the difference in projection was due to improved economic modeling
and newer economic data than in previous scenarios.
Earlier climate warming may also have been masked by the global cooling effect
of 20th-century volcanoes and by the emission of soot, which can add to warming,
the scientists said in a statement.
To reach their conclusions, the MIT team used computer simulations that took
world economic activity as well as climate processes into account, they said in
a statement.
These projections indicate that "without rapid and massive action," this
dramatic warming will take place this century, the statement said.
The outcome looks much worse if nothing is done to combat climate change,
compared to earlier projections. But there is less change if strong policies are
put in place now to cut greenhouse gas emissions.
Without action, said study co-author Ronald Prinn, "there is significantly more
risk than we previously estimated. This increases the urgency for significant
policy action."
The study was released as U.S. President Barack Obama announced a plan to set
national emissions standards for cars and trucks to cut climate-warming
pollution and as a bill to institute a cap-and-trade system to curb greenhouse
gases was debated in the House Energy and Commerce Committee.
© Thomson Reuters 2009. All rights reserved.
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Alexey Voinov
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!!!**** please note new e-mail address: aavoi...@gmail.com ****!!!
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Chesapeake Research Consortium Community Modeling Program &
Johns Hopkins University Dept. of Geography and Environm. Engineering
645 Contees Wharf Road, P.O. Box 28, Edgewater, MD 21037
TEL: 410 798-1283; 703 880-1178 WWW: http://www.likbez.com/AV
Fellow, Gund Institute for Ecological Economics,University of Vermont
President,Int.Envir.Modeling. and Software Soc.,http://www.iemss.org/
New book: Systems Science and Modeling for Ecological Economics
http://books.elsevier.com/companions/9780123725837
