Ecolog:

Offered herewith, for your careful consideration, I submit the following "Dirty Dozen." I invite criticism, additions, and deletions based on sound thinking and facts.

1. Climate changes, with or without anthropogenic influences.

2. Anthropogenic factors influence climate change.

3. Those factors have both heating and cooling effects.

4. Those factors are potentially controllable; humans have choices in that regard.

5. Other factors are not so amenable to control; however, human choices can "compensate," to some extent, for uncontrollable factors.

6. The choices made have other consequences or effects.

7. Given the aggregate of actual choices made by humans, it is necessary to predict and assess the totality of effects that result from the actual actions made on the basis of those choices.

8. To make predictions concerning actual effects over time, a continuous process of adjustment will be necessary as theoretical and actual changes are made and the theoretical and/or actual effects are assessed. This is a serious problem for those who claim to be possessed of the Holy Writ, or its scientific equivalent.

9. Negatives remain difficult to prove; positives too.

10. There are "background" rates of change (e.g., CO2 emissions beyond human control) of two kinds--those which are wholly due to factors in the absence of anthropogenic ones and those for which the anthropogenic cause is so remote as to be misdiagnosed (e.g. CO2 released from oceans and permafrost). The former factor may alone, as it has in the past, be sufficient to cause change regardless of the causal fraction due to anthropogenic activity.

11. Homeostatic influences should be considered, and care should be taken to avoid inefficient schemes, such as burying CO2 when preservation, conservation, and truly sustainable management of natural resources like tropical forests might do a better job, if not as profitable.

12. When profit can be derived from waste, it will. If serious concerns about global futures can be capitalized upon, they will be.



----- Original Message ----- From: "kerry Cutler" <cutler.ke...@gmail.com>
To: <ECOLOG-L@LISTSERV.UMD.EDU>
Sent: Tuesday, December 06, 2011 11:11 AM
Subject: Re: [ECOLOG-L] What Can I DO?? Re: [ECOLOG-L] Message from Paul Ehrlich


Hi again all,

This website is one place to start from:

http://www.skepticalscience.com/how-do-we-know-co2-is-causing-warming.html

They mention some of the main arguments and counterarguments.  Directed to
Rob, what are the holes in these particular arguments that you see that
keep you convinced that global warming and CO2 increases are not tied?

Thanks again,
Kerry Cutler



On Mon, Dec 5, 2011 at 5:11 PM, Robert Hamilton <roberthamil...@alc.edu>wrote:

I would not be much of a scientist if I accepted conjecture based solely
on authority. My reason for not accepting the view that CO2 causes current
global warming is based on my acceptance of conjecture related to the
effect of water vapour on the energy of the atmosphere, and it's variation, relative to the effect of CO2, conjectures for which there are actual data. I have done my own analysis for my own sake and come to my own conclusions, but saying CO2 causes global warming to me is like saying someone throwing
a bucket of water into the Pacific Ocean in Hawaii caused the tragic
Tsunami in Japan last year.

As for attacking me personally, even if I worked for the coal industry
itself, so what? If CO2 is not causing global warming it is not, what I do
has no effect on that. I am somewhat fortunate that I don't have to sell
myself out to some political establishment though (I don't have to get
grants from politically biased granting agencies). If I did research the
issue I would probably look at things like "development" and the way we
manipulate watersheds as a human cause of global warming over CO2, and thus
would fail, so I am lucky!

Nice thing about where I work is that while we have a tiny endowment, our
students graduate with the least debt of any school in the US. No Greek
columns, no art galleries, no mahogany garbage cans, but then we don't
force students into massive debt to support such things either. As for the
coal, IMHO the coal is worth more in the ground than it is to mine it
presently, IMHO. Maybe after generations of being ruthlessly exploited by commercial and consumer interests for the sake of cheap electricity to run air conditioners and computers, people around here might get a good return on their labour once it starts costing a person like you the equivalent of @2000.00 per month to heat your home to 68 degrees in the winter, something
that is just around the corner IMHO.

The thing that bothers me about this sort of issue is the effect it has
on Ecology a a science though. I have seen go from being required in every
school I have known to not being so required (it is here though), and I
blame that decline on the emphasis on political hackery that has developed in Ecology over the past generation. I applaud your desire to stand up for your political view, but it they are not science and they are not Ecology,
and when any science exists to serve politics, it ceases to be real
science, IMHO.

Rob Hamilton


-----Original Message-----
From: Ecological Society of America: grants, jobs, news on behalf of
David L. McNeely
Sent: Mon 12/5/2011 1:49 PM
To: ECOLOG-L@LISTSERV.UMD.EDU
Subject: Re: [ECOLOG-L] What Can I DO?? Re: [ECOLOG-L] Message from Paul
Ehrlich

Well, I don't know exactly how to respond to such a claim from a
professional biologist. Could the importance of the coal industry to the
endowment of Alice Lloyd and other economic entities in Kentucky have
anything to do with this outrageous claim?  How much credible science is
needed to convince you?  Does the fact that the world's leading
climatologists and the National Academies of Science all disagree with you matter? Does the fact that the "conflict" you claim comes from fewer than
1% of all reports on the question, while those few reports lack credible
analysis matter?

Sincerely, David McNeely

---- Robert Hamilton <roberthamil...@alc.edu> wrote:
> Science works to persuade when it provides real data, not weak
> hypotheticals. Consider the issue of ozone vs CO2. Lots of real data > on
> ozone, nothing but political hackery on CO2, so we get some action on
> ozone and nothing but conflict on CO2. However, we are only as strong > as
> our weakest link, so the CO2 argument defines us.
>
> Robert Hamilton, PhD
> Professor of Biology
> Alice Lloyd College
> Pippa Passes, KY 41844
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Ecological Society of America: grants, jobs, news
> [mailto:ECOLOG-L@LISTSERV.UMD.EDU] On Behalf Of Bowles, Elizabeth > Davis
> Sent: Monday, December 05, 2011 12:07 PM
> To: ECOLOG-L@LISTSERV.UMD.EDU
> Subject: Re: [ECOLOG-L] What Can I DO?? Re: [ECOLOG-L] Message from > Paul
> Ehrlich
>
> Social and environmental psychologists have known for some time now > that > knowledge does not change *behavior* and that information-only > campaigns
> rarely are effective.  This is because, as opposed to commercial
> marketing campaigns, usually you are asking the public to give > something
> up, step out of social norms, or do something that does not reap
> immediate benefits to them.  This requires a completely different
> approach, including removing perceived or structural barriers to
> sustainable behavior. Ecologists should strongly consider > collaborating > with psychologists on any outreach program in which a behavior change > in
> the public is the goal.
>
> See this paper in conservation biology:
>
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1523-1739.2011.01766.x/full
>
> and this website:
> http://www.cbsm.com/pages/guide/fostering-sustainable-behavior/
>
> and this report from the APA:
> http://www.apa.org/science/about/publications/climate-change.aspx
>
> Beth Davis Bowles, Ph.D.
> Research Specialist
> Bull Shoals Field Station
> Missouri State University
> 901 S. National
> Springfield, MO  65897
> phone (417) 836-3731
> fax (417) 836-8886
> ________________________________________
> From: Ecological Society of America: grants, jobs, news
> [ECOLOG-L@LISTSERV.UMD.EDU] On Behalf Of David L. McNeely
> [mcnee...@cox.net]
> Sent: Monday, December 05, 2011 9:55 AM
> To: ECOLOG-L@LISTSERV.UMD.EDU
> Subject: Re: [ECOLOG-L] What Can I DO?? Re: [ECOLOG-L] Message from > Paul
> Ehrlich
>
> ---- Steve Young <syou...@unlnotes.unl.edu> wrote:
> > Lawren et al.,
> > Unfortunately, I think you may be preaching to the choir. I'm not
> > trying to be pessimistic, but if every ESA member were to follow
> > through and commit to the 'doing something', instead of just > > 'talking
> > more', what would that accomplish? Just going by the numbers,
> > conservatively speaking, ESA membership is around 10,000 and > > according
>
> > to the Census Bureau, the current population in the US is > > 312,718,825
> > (
> > http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html) So, what do we
> > do about the other 312,708,000?
> > I'm in the education arena and it is a question that I've been > > trying
> > to figure out how to answer for a long time. I know advocacy is one
> > way and something I work on all the time. Maybe this should be part > > of
>
> > the focus of the 'doing something' approach.
> > Steve
>
> I believe when we help to educate others we are doing something.  I'm
> funny that way, I guess.
>
> The difficulty comes when our educational efforts fail, as they seem > to
> be doing on this matter.  So, I need help in knowing what to do that
> will actually work.  So far as individual effort, I already try to buy
> only what I need and to use old stuff.  I minimize my fuel use by
> driving a Toyota Prius, walking for local transportation when I can, > not > using air conditioning though I live in a very hot climate, wearing > warm > clothing and keeping the house cool in winter ................ . But > I
> have not been able to persuade many others to engage in the same
> actions.  Reading and understanding the data that come in seems
> unconvincing to so many.  Science is only trusted when it reinforces
> already held beliefs, even if less than 1% of those claiming to be
> scientists provide the claims that reinforce.
>
> So, what can I do?
>
> David McNeely
>
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--
David McNeely




The information transmitted is intended only for the person(s) or entity
to which it is addressed and may contain confidential and/or privileged
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