I've gone to a lot of trouble to add Bayesian adjustment in a spreadsheet
for estimating confidence limits of an individual's true score when the
subject is assessed with a noisy test. I specify the prior belief simply
by stating a best guess of the true score, and its x% likely limits, with
assumption of normality. I now realize that the adjustment is sensitive to
the value of x, but how does a person know what x is for a given belief?
For example, I might believe that the individual's true score is 70 units,
and that the likely range is +/- 10 units. So what describes
"likely"? 90%, 95%, 99%...? Do Bayesians have any validated way to work
that out? If they don't, then the whole Bayesian edifice might just come
crashing down. I put this to a Bayesian who has been helping me, but I
have received no reply from him since I sent the message, so I suspect the
worst.
Will
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