Hi
On 3 May 2001, Warren Sarle wrote:
> Joel Best is a professor of sociology and criminal
> justice at the University of Delaware. This essay is
> excerpted from _Damned Lies and Statistics:
> Untangling Numbers From the Media, Politicians, and
> Activists_, just published by the University of
> California Press
> So the prospectus began with this (carefully footnoted)
> quotation: "Every year since 1950, the number of American
> children gunned down has doubled." I had been invited to
> serve on the student's dissertation committee. When I read
> the quotation, I assumed the student had made an error in
> copying it. I went to the library and looked up the article
> the student had cited. There, in the journal's 1995 volume,
> was exactly the same sentence: "Every year since 1950, the
> number of American children gunned down has doubled."
> This quotation is my nomination for a dubious distinction: I think it may be
> the worst -- that is, the most inaccurate -- social statistic ever.
> Full text:
> http://chronicle.com/free/v47/i34/34b00701.htm
Here is the progression, culminating in 35 trillion children
being gunned down in 1995, far beyond the population of the world
since its inception, as Best points out in the original
article. In the article he describes tracking down the original
basis for the statistic. At some point, doubling _since_ 1950
got translated into doubling every year since 1950.
Year # Children Gunned Down
1950 1
1951 2
1952 4
1953 8
1954 16
1955 32
1956 64
1957 128
1958 256
1959 512
1960 1,024
1961 2,048
1962 4,096
1963 8,192
1964 16,384
1965 32,768
1966 65,536
1967 131,072
1968 262,144
1969 524,288
1970 1,048,576
1971 2,097,152
1972 4,194,304
1973 8,388,608
1974 16,777,216
1975 33,554,432
1976 67,108,864
1977 134,217,728
1978 268,435,456
1979 536,870,912
1980 1,073,741,824
1981 2,147,483,648
1982 4,294,967,296
1983 8,589,934,592
1984 17,179,869,184
1985 34,359,738,368
1986 68,719,476,736
1987 137,438,953,472
1988 274,877,906,944
1989 549,755,813,888
1990 1,099,511,627,776
1991 2,199,023,255,552
1992 4,398,046,511,104
1993 8,796,093,022,208
1994 17,592,186,044,416
1995 35,184,372,088,832
Best wishes
Jim
============================================================================
James M. Clark (204) 786-9757
Department of Psychology (204) 774-4134 Fax
University of Winnipeg 4L05D
Winnipeg, Manitoba R3B 2E9 [EMAIL PROTECTED]
CANADA http://www.uwinnipeg.ca/~clark
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