On Tue, 20 Jun 2000, Dale Berger wrote:
> If we observe one escape out of 1250 inmates, why can't we reliably
> rule out zero as the population escape rate?
Because k = 1 (for n = 1250) is not significantly different from k = 0.
> The normal approximation to the binomial may not be appropriate here.
No, I don't expect it is. So use the binomial distribution.
That's supposing that one wants a statistical argument. If a purely
logical argument suffices, it is indeed the case that a counterexample
demonstrates the falsity of a proposition. But it may still be not
unreasonable to ask, with what probability may one observe one (or more)
escapes outof n=1250 (or whatever n actually applies), if the true
probability of an escape is <some suitably small non-zero value>?
(I specify non-zero only because it's difficult to carry out some
computations when p=0 exactly.)
And it is certainly reasonable to ask what confidence interval on p is
associated with k = 1.
-- Don.
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Donald F. Burrill [EMAIL PROTECTED]
348 Hyde Hall, Plymouth State College, [EMAIL PROTECTED]
MSC #29, Plymouth, NH 03264 603-535-2597
184 Nashua Road, Bedford, NH 03110 603-471-7128
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