[EMAIL PROTECTED] (jennl) wrote in message news:<[EMAIL PROTECTED]>... > [EMAIL PROTECTED] (David Reilly) wrote in message news:<[EMAIL PROTECTED]>... > > [EMAIL PROTECTED] (jennl) wrote in message news:<[EMAIL PROTECTED]>... > > > I am first trying to build a model using regression analysis to > > > explain weekly sales, stripped of all exogenous variables (pricing, > > > seasonality, etc) and all marketing expenditures > > > > > > You shouldn't strip or pre-filter these exogenous variables as their > > impact or weight is most likely inter-dependent with your three > > additional variables. Further more there may be lag effects of these > > stage 1 variables that you might not be correctly forming. > > Additionally there may be Interventions such as Level Shifts or Local > > time trends or Holiday Events which might change the Y variable > > before,on or after these events. In addition since you are dealing > > with time series there may be autoregressive structure in the errors > > reflecting omitted variables and one might need to add an ARIMA > > component and/or weekly dummies reflecting a deterministic effect for > > the week of the year. > > > > One of our customers Anheuser-Busch ( > > http://www.autobox.com/stories.html)is using our software (AUTOBOX) to > > perform a similar analysis . They are analyzing sales of 50 SKU's at > > 650,000 retail outlets (stores) by day incorporating > > price,weather,holidays,events abd special promotions. > > > > http://www.autobox.com/details.htm report > > http://www.autobox.com/actfore.jpg > > http://www.autobox.com/intrvent.html > > http://www.autobox.com/equation.txt > > http://www.autobox.com/verbal.txt > > http://www.autobox.com/stat.html > > > > Specifically they include a 0/1 variable for off/on promotion and > > price to customer in order to estimate the impact of promotion and the > > impact of price. > > > > If you wish to discuss this further please feel free to give me a call > > at > > 215-675-0652 > > > > Dave Reilly > > Automatic Forecasting Systems > > http://www.autobox.com > > > > > > > > > > Regards > > Thanks for the insight Dave..I might call you in a little to discuss further..
Dave, I have read that 50% of alcholoic beverage sales are to alcoholics. That seems reasonable. 60% of adults drink and 6% of adults are alcoholic. That would mean that the typical alcoholic drinks 10 times more than the typical drinker who is not addicted. A lot of data is available related to alcoholism: suicides, murders, emergency room admissions, liver chirosis as a cause of death, drunk driving arrests and accidents, prescriptions, persons in rehab, etc. Is Anheuser-Busch including variables to account for the number of alcoholics living near each store? Bob 251026473393872 . . ================================================================= Instructions for joining and leaving this list, remarks about the problem of INAPPROPRIATE MESSAGES, and archives are available at: . http://jse.stat.ncsu.edu/ . =================================================================
