Why re-invent the wheel, and have to de-bug it besides?  Get one of the
standard statistical analysis packages (SPSS, SAS, MINITAB, ...) and use
the multiple regression routine to fit your data to a suitable model.

Minitab Inc. in particular offers a 30-day (I think) trial of MINITAB
software:  visit <http://www.minitab.com>

On Wed, 13 Aug 2003, Top Spin wrote in part:

> I would appreciate suggestions for text books or reference books on
> exponential decay functions, probability distribution functions, and
> the like. ...  <snip>
> I am trying to explore whether memory fades exponentially in a way
> that is similar to radioactive isotopes decaying, batteries
> discharging, or light bulbs burning out. I want to write some software
> to gather data and test these ideas, but I need help with the math. I
> want to fit the appropriate function to the test data and then use
> that function to predict future data points.
  <snip, the rest>

An exponential decay function (IIRC) is of the form

        Y = a * e^(bX)

where Y is the response variable that is thought to decay exponentially,
X is the variable (usually time) with respect to which the decay occurs,
and  a  and  b  are real numbers (in practice, rational numbers) to fit
the data.  Taking (natural) logarithms,

        Log(Y) = log(a) + bX

which is of the standard linear form.  A simple linear regression
analysis will provide estimates of  log(a)  and  b.

The textbook references that would help you most are those on regression
analysis.  You might start with one of the standards in the field,
Draper & Smith, "Applied regression analysis" (Wiley), which must be in
at least a third edition by now.

Good luck!   -- DFB.
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------
 Donald F. Burrill                                         [EMAIL PROTECTED]
 56 Sebbins Pond Drive, Bedford, NH 03110                 (603) 626-0816

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