Hello,
  I'm considering  a problem where I would like to classify the
predictions made by a multiple linear regression model as 'good' or 'bad'.

I have considered a number of ways to go about it - the most obvious being
the use of outlier diagnostics and classifying outliers as 'bad'
predictions.

However I was also wondering whether it would make sense to use the
standard deviation of the observations (or the predictions) as a criterion.
That is, if a prediction lies outside, say, 1 standard deviation, it would
be 'bad'. The problem is '1 standard deviation of *what* ?'

I'm not sure that it seems to make sense to say 1 standard deviation
beyond the mean of the observation. 

Is it possible to calculate confidence intervals for the predictions and
then say that if an observation lies outside the calculated confidence
interval it would be 'bad'?

Or should I simply stick to outlier diagnostics?

Thanks,


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Rajarshi Guha  <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> <http://jijo.cjb.net>
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