2009/12/9 seppley <sepp...@alumni.caltech.edu> > Without studying details of the three Romanian candidates and the voters' > preferences, the explanation of this majority cycle cannot be known for > sure. > > However, consider a case of three very similar candidates. The voters' > preferences in each of the three possible pairings would be nearly tied > (approximately 50% preferring each candidate over each other candidate). > In such a case, a cycle involving three small majorities would not be > rare. Almost an even bet? >
Not rare, you're right. However, what you are describing is essentially something like a "random elections model" or perhaps a "Dirchlet model", which, according to WDS's table of calculations<http://rangevoting.org/Romania2009.html>, for 3 or 4 serious candidates, have probabilities of Condorcet cycles somewhere in the range of 6-18% - which is certainly nothing to be shocked about when it happens by chance, but also a good deal less than an even bet. > --Steve > -------------------------- > Jameson Quinn wrote: > > This is good math, and very interesting, but it doesn't speak at all > about > > the politics of the matter. Have you figured out any tentative > explanation > > for the Condorcet cycles you postulate? Why would, for instance, O>B>G > > voters be more common than O>G>B voters, yet in the mirror-image votes, > > B>G>O voters more common than G>B>O ones? (I realize that the Condorcet > > cycle does not require exactly that circumstance, but it suggests > > something > > of the kind). > > > > I understand that any such explanation would be post-hoc and speculative, > > yet it is still worthwhile to make the attempt. > > > > Jameson > > > > 2009/12/8 Warren Smith <warren....@gmail.com> > > > >> preliminary page on Romania 2009 election now available here > >> > >> http://rangevoting.org/Romania2009.html > >> > >> The results are not as impressive as I originally thought they were > >> going to be. > >> -- > >> Warren D. Smith > ---- > Election-Methods mailing list - see http://electorama.com/em for list info >
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