[EMAIL PROTECTED] writes:
A lot of interesting speculation (and cool movie scripts) coming out
of answers to Gail and Roberta's questions. Of course, Carl Sagan
and others have covered much the same ground before, and viewers of
Star Trek, etc. are also familiar with this topic. Some important
additional points are: if there are advanced aliens out there, what
is/was their purpose in communicating with other, less advanced ones?
Allow me to answer your question with a question. Why do some humans shoot
animals with dart guns, fit them with radio collars, and let them loose?
Objectively speaking, the answer is to observe their 'natural' behavior.
Clearly, behavior so impacted by being darted, collared, and followed around
for the rest of your life is not conducive to making the best test subject.
Nevertheless, the data gathered is thought to be 'important', to the gatherer.
Hypothetically speaking, an advanced alien species is NOT likely to 'wink
out' of existence overnight. Personally, I think that doomsayer stuff about
'100 years from the discovery of radio technology until a civilization
destroys itself' to be a bunch of foolishness. Consider: if a civilization
discovers various big technologies, it very likely has had those technologies
employed to increase the size of its population, thereby increasing the
social pressures, thereby increasing the demand for... social philosophies to
emerge.
Case in point: Ancient China has likely been 'civilized' for 4000 years. It
has had the capacity to build cities, grow giant populations, and so forth...
and, because it has had giant civilizations for 1000s of years, it had to
figure out ways to get along. Confucian philosophy was their answer. In
essence, they came up with a methodology for getting things done, as a group,
over the long term, by stifling out individuality.
This has a mixed result. It allows relative harmony, by stifling dissent.
It also stifles innovation, therefore allowing Chinese civilization to
'plateau'.
I suspect that all of Earth may be on the verge of such a necessary discovery
of group harmony theory. It's necessary, in a world of nearly 7 billion
people. Now, in a world of 7 billion, with shared communications, there will
be more capacity, but less innovation, because of the monopolization of
creativity by a relatively small clique. This is another way of saying that
1000 tiny nations are individually less capable, but probably have a greater
divergence of ideas, than one giant world nation.
Ergo, we may be on the verge of figuring out how to get along in a crowded,
advanced society, by stifling out our madmen and our geniuses.
So, IF there has been another group out there which has discovered similar
technologies, it may be entirely possible that it could be around for many,
many millenia. I suspect we humans will be around long after the various
doomsday theories have long withered away.
Now, IF such a millenialist group exists, and they do have the capacity for
long-distance communications, and the interest, why would they want to risk
doing so? They would likely know that if we discovered we were being
tinkered with or watched, we'd react, thereby blowing the experiment. It
would be the biggest kick in the pants to human evolution since the discovery
of fire. Ergo, a truly wise civilization, and I'm presuming they are wise,
to have lasted for millenia, wouldn't risk outright communications... unless
they were desperate or crazy.
-- John Harlow Byrne
We are being very kind to ourselves in giving longevity to our
current technology-based culture. Personally, I look around and
don't see the long-term odds as too great--hope I'm wrong.
JUSTIFY your pessimism. Don't just regurgitate the pablum we're fed by the
media.
So we've got the bomb. So what? Since the bomb was first used, nearly 60
years ago, the world has been a far more peaceful place than it ever was in
the centuries preceding it.
So we've got pollution. So what? If it gets all that bad, the weak will
die, and the survivors will evolve to tolerate pollution. The civilization,
though, survives.
So we're overcrowded. We'll invent harmony theory.
So we've got crime, madmen, riots. Big deal. Read any ancient Roman
historian. Rome had nutcases too, and lasted for 1000 years. Besides, we
now know the symptoms, so may be able to treat the disease.
And
lastly, humans have got this far because a lot of contingencies were
fulfilled that may be nearly impossible to reproduce. How long would
we have to wait for cows or dolphins to build radios?
Don't put your money on cows or dolphins. I'd bet instead on raccoons, or
maybe chimpanzees, in another 2-5 million years.
See any of
Steve Gould's books on this subject--my favorite is "Wonderful Life".
Even given the immensity of the universe, the odds of producing and
maintaining an advanced civilization are remote. The chances of us
contacting one are even remoter. Then why bother? It's that gambler
gene in us all that got us to where we are today.
Gary
P.S. In my spare time, I build prototype instruments for life
detection experiments on Mars and Europa. No kidding.
How about a radio-controlled submarine / ice-borer, made to 1/20 scale
size? Now THAT would be an interesting instrument.
Hey, if people can make radio controlled planes that work in 3 dimensions,
why not a submarine? It would be even easier, really. The catch would be
attaching an ice borer on it, perhaps a modified propeller, so the
sub/borer could go on its merry way, through water or ice.
Additionally, such a model should be able to follow pre-programmed dive
routines, designed on a computer desktop, and translated into radio
signals, to cause the sub/borer to follow a pre-set dive pattern.
-- John Harlow Byrne
