SOunds more like a problem with high humidity than with low
temperature.  Are there any records of the humidity for that day
available?

Joe L.


On Sun, 2003-02-02 at 17:35, Gary McMurtry wrote:
> 
> Bruce,
> 
> Ice on the main fuel tank, with enough build-up to break off in large 
> pieces and strike the soft tiles on the shuttle.  Is this build-up 
> always the case, or are we witnessing yet another disaster brought 
> about, or at least exacerbated by winter launches?  The first time it 
> was frozen, brittle o-rings on the boosters, due at least in part to 
> extremely cold weather at launch.
> 
> Gary
> 
> 
> >Sequence of events from today's news conference:
> >
> >7:53 AM -- Temperature inside left wheel well starts to rise (20 deg over
> >the next 5 minutes).  Simultaneously, left elevon temperature sensors (whose
> >signal line runs through the wheelwell) all fail.  At this time, Shuttle is
> >flying over east California -- and at about this point, CalTech scientistst
> >Dr. Binkley sees a cloud of small debris come off the Shuttle, and delivers
> >a signed statement to NASA to that effect.  (Other unspecified witnesses in
> >California and Arizona also report seeing it.)
> >
> >7:54 -- Temperature of Shuttle skin in an area immediately under the tiles
> >on its left side ABOVE the wing starts to rise -- 60 deg over 5 minutes (as
> >opposed to a 15 degree rise on the right side).
> >
> >7:58 -- Autopilot starts to respond to modest rise in drag on Shuttle's left
> >side -- indicating either major roughness in tiles or patch of missing
> >tiles -- by adjusting the left elevon to compensate.  Simultaneously, more
> >engineering sensors inside left wheel well start to fail at diffferent
> >times.
> >
> >7:59 -- Drag problem increases and autopilot works harder to compensate.
> >
> >8:00 -- Loss of voice signal (at a time when the autopilot still is nowhere
> >near reaching its maximum control limits).
> >
> >32 seconds of scrambled -- but probably partially interpretable --
> >engineering telemetry after loss of voice contact.  This is now starting to
> >be deciphered.  (Although this wasn't mentioned at the conference, one
> >obvious possible interpretation is that the Shuttle was tumbling.)
> >
> >As for that fragment of white debris seen coming off the "bipod" (the two
> >struts attaching the Shuttle's nose to the external tank) 80 seconds after
> >launch: Norman Thagard confirms that the tank's foam is actually very soft
> >material, and only produces a streak even when it hits a Shuttle window.
> >HOWEVER: Shuttle engineer Randy Avara reveals that CNN has another piece of
> >videotape showing the incident more clearly from another angle, and that the
> >white debris bounced off the Shuttle's left underside and broke into a cloud
> >of fragments -- which vaporized as they approached the exhaust flames.
> >
> >The implications, I think, are clear: loss of tiles due to a big hard chunk
> >of ice falling off the tank and hitting them.  (Thagard confirms that ice
> >would be much more worrisome than the tank foam.)  Damaged tiles then start
> >to strip away -- probably from two separate places on the Shuttle's left
> >side -- during early re-enetry, and burnthrough begins in the left
> >wheelwell.  The final failure may have been due to the autopilot simply
> >being strained beyond its abilities by a still further increase in left-side
> >drag -- or the left elevon control line may have broken, as the telemetry
> >leads had.
> >
> >One other big story: some remains of all seven astronauts have been
> >recovered, apparently from a wooded patch filled with big pieces of the crew
> >compartment.  (No further details.)
> >
> >==
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