http://www.cnn.com/2003/TECH/space/02/03/sprj.colu.shuttle/index.html

http://www.msnbc.com/news/867336.asp?0si

The foam fragment is now officially the prime suspect in the disaster --
NASA's engineers concluded during the flight that it could have caused
damage ranging from removal of a single tile to removal of tiles "over an
area of 7 by 30 inches", but that this probably would not have led to a
burnthrough.  It now starts to look as though the fragment actually hit near
the seam of a wheelwell door -- one of the most vulnerable spots on the
Shuttle -- so that the tile gap did the fatal damage that was considered
statistically unlikely by those engineers.  (A whole series of observers all
over California -- including a whole group of Cal Tech scientists -- now
consistently report seeing several small fiery objects fall off the Shuttle
during reentry, followed by a much bigger object.)

But this hardly makes it a fantastically unlikely freak
accident --significant tile damage on Shuttles as a result of debris (both
foam and ice) falling off the external tank occurs regularly.  (One engineer
told "60 Minutes" last night that there have been flights in which, on
return, "half the tiles on the vehicle were damaged".)  It now looks very
much as though NASA applied the same reasoning on tile damage which (as
Richard Feynman pointed out) they were applying to O-ring damage before
Challenger: we've gotten away with it so far, so let's keep flying without
any expensive modifications until we run out of luck, and only then run back
to Congress with our begging bowl...

And -- even if we do solidly nail this down as the cause -- the
modifications needed to correct it will be difficult.  Either we have to
find a way to ensure that no debris -- either foam or ice -- falls off the
external tank during launch, or we have to find a way to greatly harden the
Shuttle's tiles.  Either way, we're looking at a mandatory program delay
resembling that after the Challenger disaster, at a time when the Station
needs constant manned maintenance.

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