arg... my numbers are all wrong, but you get the idea.
From: "adam ." <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Reply-To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Subject: Re: Trillions of planets in the Universe?
Date: Fri, 26 Sep 2003 23:37:14 -0400
MIME-Version: 1.0
X-Originating-IP: [65.93.91.54]
X-Originating-Email: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Received: from mc7-f38.hotmail.com ([65.54.253.45]) by mc7-s15.hotmail.com with Microsoft SMTPSVC(5.0.2195.5600); Fri, 26 Sep 2003 20:50:04 -0700
Received: from klx.com ([161.58.236.65]) by mc7-f38.hotmail.com with Microsoft SMTPSVC(5.0.2195.6713); Fri, 26 Sep 2003 20:45:26 -0700
Received: (from [EMAIL PROTECTED])by klx.com (8.12.9p1/8.12.9) id h8R3bHuj020663for europa-outgoing; Fri, 26 Sep 2003 21:37:17 -0600 (MDT)
Received: from hotmail.com (sea2-f25.sea2.hotmail.com [207.68.165.25])by klx.com (8.12.9p1/8.12.9) with ESMTP id h8R3bFk1020658for <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>; Fri, 26 Sep 2003 21:37:16 -0600 (MDT)
Received: from mail pickup service by hotmail.com with Microsoft SMTPSVC; Fri, 26 Sep 2003 20:37:15 -0700
Received: from 65.93.91.54 by sea2fd.sea2.hotmail.msn.com with HTTP;Sat, 27 Sep 2003 03:37:14 GMT
X-Message-Info: U2wzkPk8/jZXaCkyQJn1z8qny5MWpDkoAGPSGi0LoxA=
X-Authentication-Warning: klx.com: klx set sender to [EMAIL PROTECTED] using -f
Message-ID: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 27 Sep 2003 03:37:15.0108 (UTC) FILETIME=[A4D1A240:01C384A8]
Sender: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Precedence: bulk
Errors-To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Return-Path: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Those are all great points, and also add in the metal having to be a part of the whole cycle of my rant here (i guess assume that when i say 'technology'). It just makes things more unlikely, which is what i was trying to point at here.
If there are 100 billion planet systems in our galaxy, and if it's assumed that there are 100 billion galaxies, with 100 billion planet systems, this would conclude that there are about 10 trillion planet systems in the universe.
If this is true and you take everything within a million years of itself, assuming that life would be equally spread out over time, you would end up getting about 714 million planets systems existing that could possibally hold life, within a million years (also assuming that 10 trillion planet systems have existed over the course of the universe, up until now, rather than 10 trillion planets existing at this point in time. Can anyone answer this?)
so, if you assume that intelligent life would exist for about 10000 years, this means that at any given time there should be about 71.4 thousand planet systems in our universe, given that this number would probably be greater now since the first few billion years were the 'developement' stages of the universe and there would be much less at the beginning, and near then end, if one exists.
The odds of one of those planet systems being close enough for us to be able to detect intelligent life using radio waves is very slim. If anything, we might come across some radio waves that are from a distant non-existant life form millions of light years away.
Then you have to take into consideration that the intelligent life form must be using some type of radio technology similar to ours, and the universe or planets must have the same type materials existing on it to be able to transmit these radio waves.
You also have to take into consideration that these life forms must be transmitting radio waves for a very long time for us to recieve them, or we have to get really lucky. We have only been transmitting radio waves since the 50's i believe. This is only about 50 years (i may be wrong on this) that we have been sending out signals, so this means that only planet systems that are at most 50 light years away from us can recieve our signals, if they are in their stages of sending/recieving radio signals, or if they even use that technology at all. When we stop sending out radio waves, lets say in total we were sending out radio waves for 500 000 years (yes, that number seems very large and is probably wrong. It's probably more like 100 years for us humans, since we are probably going to be gone in like 50 years anyway), there is only a span of 500 000 years when someone could intercept our waves. This would mean that our waves would have to pass by a planet with a life form that uses radio technology at some point in time between that 500 000 years, which is pretty unlikely since the universe is so large and since there just isn't that much intelligent life within that time period.
Basically to summerize, i believe that there just isn't enough intelligent life out there to be able to detect them within our life time, unless we get really lucky, but we would be more likely to win the lottery. I think the only life we are going to find on other planets is here, in our solar system. I think that life can exist pretty much anywhere, as long as there is oxygen. It should be assumed that there is intelligent life out there somewhere, maybe not at the same time as us, but there was, or is going to be. The chances of us finding some type of life form is just too small. I think it's pretty close to impossible for us to find another intelligent life form within our short life span.
It's really hard to say though, since there are so many unanswered questions. Astronomers and scientists are always finding that life can exist in the most drastic places, where it was thought to be impossible for life to exist. The only way we are going to somehow find another intelligent life form is if all the scientists and astronomers theories are wrong on where life can exist, and intelligent life can exist in different extreme environments taht we assumed couldn't. But then, would they use the same technology as us?
It's so hard to say, since there are so many unsanwered questions and changing theories regarding this topic. Basically what it boils down to is, we know nothing, and all we can do is hope that we can prove that there is life on some place like europa, to prove that other planets can in fact hold life, even in extreme circumstances. This would bring us closer to a better estimate then the one we have now, but i would bet that we are even still way off.
From: Gary McMurtry <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Reply-To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Subject: Re: Trillions of planets in the Universe?
Date: Fri, 26 Sep 2003 15:45:43 -0800
MIME-Version: 1.0
Received: from mc7-f9.hotmail.com ([65.54.253.16]) by mc7-s6.hotmail.com with Microsoft SMTPSVC(5.0.2195.5600); Fri, 26 Sep 2003 19:04:15 -0700
Received: from klx.com ([161.58.236.65]) by mc7-f9.hotmail.com with Microsoft SMTPSVC(5.0.2195.5600); Fri, 26 Sep 2003 19:03:25 -0700
Received: (from [EMAIL PROTECTED])by klx.com (8.12.9p1/8.12.9) id h8R1npUN006939for europa-outgoing; Fri, 26 Sep 2003 19:49:51 -0600 (MDT)
Received: from orngca-mls02.socal.rr.com (orngca-mls02.socal.rr.com [66.75.160.17])by klx.com (8.12.9p1/8.12.9) with ESMTP id h8R1noc2006927for <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>; Fri, 26 Sep 2003 19:49:50 -0600 (MDT)
Received: from [24.165.44.130] (cpe-24-165-44-130.hawaii.rr.com [24.165.44.130])by orngca-mls02.socal.rr.com (8.11.4/8.11.3) with ESMTP id h8R1jJx17844for <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>; Fri, 26 Sep 2003 18:45:20 -0700 (PDT)
X-Message-Info: U2wzkPk8/jY2RGOOB4I/p+xVrscu/ZecUGOxzgrIScE=
X-Authentication-Warning: klx.com: klx set sender to [EMAIL PROTECTED] using -f
Message-Id: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
In-Reply-To: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
References: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Sender: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Precedence: bulk
Errors-To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Return-Path: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 27 Sep 2003 02:03:27.0034 (UTC) FILETIME=[8A39B1A0:01C3849B]
Joe, et al.,
Peter Ward and David Brownlee discussed this important issue in their book, "Rare Earth", using a modified Drake equation. One time constraint for life in general is the stellar evolution of metals to support it, like iron, copper, etc. So we don't get the luxury of 15+ billion years, more like the last 5+. Terrestrial planets, of course, mean metals, but I wonder how many of these solar systems have them. Gas giants like Jupiter are far easier to detect.
Maybe the up side of finding we are alone or extremely rare will be that we will become nicer to each other, and start taking better care of the place.
Gary
PS. Technology is never bad per se, it's those applications folks come up with.
So more to ponder.
The might be there, or have been there. The probability was given as an estimate (just grabbed a big number). I have been given the example that if you took all of the history of the universe (15+ billion years) and made that time the same as the height of the washington monument, all life on earth would represented by the thickness of a postage stamp at the top (time wise). So lets say we have 10,000 monuments of the same height. What are the odds of any two postage stamps lining up? How much of that thickness is intellegent life?
So even if the number were 1 in a million planets had intellegent life, the odds of finding it are still (due to time) astronomically small.
But then again, if there were life in the Centauri system (closest extrasolar point), how would we know? Technology might kill us before it evolves to the point of answering that question. Should that stop us? Naw, but it might slow us down just a tad ;)
Joe L.
On Fri, 2003-09-26 at 13:26, Eugen Leitl wrote:On Fri, Sep 26, 2003 at 08:45:20AM -0800, Gary McMurtry wrote: > > Hey, not so fast. Who estimated the chances for intelligent life at > 1 in 10^9? I'll bet it's way lower than that figure.
We can't tell, actually. Our single sample is infinitely biased due to anthropic principle (a detector will always detect its own prensence, even through only one instance might be present).
As non-space-faring cultures won't survive beyond a few megayears (but in very sheltered environments) we can look at space-faring cultures, and there doesn't seem to be any.
1) they're not there 2) they're there, but they don't expand to provide detectable energy metabolism signatures over long or short (travel) distances
1) is the least extravagant explanation
== You are subscribed to the Europa Icepick mailing list: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Project information and list (un)subscribe info: http://klx.com/europa/
== You are subscribed to the Europa Icepick mailing list: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Project information and list (un)subscribe info: http://klx.com/europa/
_________________________________________________________________
Add photos to your messages with MSN 8. Get 2 months FREE*. http://join.msn.com/?page=features/featuredemail
== You are subscribed to the Europa Icepick mailing list: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Project information and list (un)subscribe info: http://klx.com/europa/
_________________________________________________________________
Help STOP SPAM with the new MSN 8 and get 2 months FREE* http://join.msn.com/?page=features/junkmail
== You are subscribed to the Europa Icepick mailing list: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Project information and list (un)subscribe info: http://klx.com/europa/
