Every 18mo battery: energy density up 15%; cost pkWh down 15%; cycles up
15%; & cost per lifecycle-mile down 50% 

http://gigaom.com/2013/02/10/how-battery-improvements-will-revolutionize-the-design-of-the-electric-car/
[images] How battery improvements will revolutionize the design of the
electric car
By Katie Fehrenbacher  [2013/02/10]

[image] We drive the new Tesla Model S thumbnail

Summary: Battery innovation isn’t as slow as many people think it is, and
the continued pace of battery improvement enables entirely new types of
electric car design, according to Tesla co-founder and CTO JB Straubel.

Tesla could have never created the Model S — it’s second-generation electric
car that won Motor Trend’s car of the year award for 2012 — with battery
technology from a few decades ago, said Tesla’s CTO and co-founder J.B.
Straubel at the Cleantech Investor Summit last week. He explained, “The type
of vehicle we can create is fundamentally different every time that tech
(batteries) moves a little forward.”

While battery innovation appears gradual, the incremental leaps add up over
time. Battery innovation is improving around 5 to 8 percent per year, which
can deliver a doubling in core performance metrics every ten years, which is
ultimately really “revolutionary” said Straubel. Because of the large size
and heavy physical weight of batteries involved with electric cars, the
impact of battery innovation on the design of the car can be even more
significant than Moore’s Law has on some computing products, added Straubel.

For car design, “It’s almost as if the properties of steel were improving at
a rate of 5 to 8 percent per year,” said Straubel.

[image] Tesla Model S

The new design and engineering of the Model S has been Tesla’s
differentiator, and it is what the company is hoping will help it move into
profitability and success as a more mainstream auto maker down the road. The
car is one of the first electric cars in the world that was designed from
the ground up as electric. In contrast most auto makers that have built
electric cars have taken an existing traditional gas-powered car and put
batteries in it.

The Model S, in comparison, has placed the battery along the bottom of the
car, so that it doesn’t take up seating and storage space, and also so that
the car has a low center of gravity and is more aerodynamic. The Tesla
Roadster (it’s first car) and the Nissan LEAF are based on the bodies of
gas-powered cars.

Shai Agassi, the founder and former CEO of Better Place, also touted the
importance of the rate of battery innovation during his talk at the
Cleantech Investor Summit. He said the energy density of batteries goes up
15 percent every 18 months; the cost per kilowatt hour goes down 15 percent
every 18 months; the life cycles of the batteries (how many times it can
charge and recharge) goes up 15 percent every 18 months; and the cost per
lifecycle-mile does down 50 percent every 18 months. “If you don’t like the
margins in this (electric car) business just wait 12 months,” said Agassi.

The crucial factor for both Tesla and Better Place will be surviving in an
early market place as these improvements emerge. As with all startups,
timing and execution will be key.
[© 2013 GigaOM]




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