'The sheiks have made a sucker’s bet' 'World’s most polluted cities'
http://investorplace.com/2015/12/opec-electric-vehicles-tsla-stock-f/ OPEC Is Wrong — Electric Vehicles Are a Game Changer Dec 24, 2015 James Brumley The consortium painted a grim picture for the EV market, but overlooks some key realities On Wednesday, OPEC rattled the electric vehicle world by predicting a stark lack of penetration into a market currently dominated by combustion-driven vehicles. Specifically, the oil-exporting coalition believes that in 2040, 94% of the world’s automobiles will still be burning fossil fuels to push them around. Still, it all begs the question: Is there any chance OPEC is right? Could the biggest technological leap of the decade stall before it ever gets going in earnest? The answer to the question starts by considering the source of the outlook. King Gasoline? The 407 page report was unveiled earlier this week, detailing OPEC’s oil-consumption outlook for the next several years. The specifics were ancillary, all ultimately aimed to support the premise, “Without a technology breakthrough, battery electric vehicles are not expected to gain significant market share in the foreseeable future.” One of those details: EVs will make up just 1% of the world’s total automobile market in 2040. Another stark prognostication: In 2040, automobiles as a whole will consume 17% more oil than they do right now, implying the vast majority of new vehicles introduced between now and them will be gasoline or diesel driven. The basis for the thinking isn’t too tough to understand. Based on what can be superficially seen on the market right here, right now, electric vehicles simply don’t seem practical. On average, electric vehicles get about 200 miles worth of travel on a charge, after which a multi-hour recharge is required. A gas tank, conversely, can be filled up in just a couple of minutes. And then there’s the small matter of a lack of charging stations. There are less than 12,000 of them in the United States right now. For perspective, there are 168,000 gas stations in the U.S. Never even mind the fact that the only electric vehicle one could say is meaningfully mass produced — Teslas — typically sell around an unaffordable-for-most $100,000. And yet, OPEC is short-sighted in its assumption that the way things are now is the way they’ll be in 25 years. Indeed, the way things are now aren’t even the way they’ll be in 25 months. OPEC Just Doesn’t Get It Not everyone agrees with OPEC’s dire assessment of the future of electric vehicles. Or, more specifically, many qualified observers disagree with the outlook. Goldman Sachs is one of those dissenters. The investment bank thinks EV battery prices will fall 60% within five years, yet the distances they can propel automobiles will improve by 70%. Some researchers at Cambridge believe those technological and cost leaps are still too conservative. Historically speaking, it’s been better to side with the progressive optimists than the doubters. At one point in time, DVDs, broadband Internet and mobile phones were all considered too expensive and too limited in scope to become mainstream … right up until the point they were no longer prohibitively expensive suddenly very functional. The forward progress of mobile phones, DVDs, broadband and pretty much any other commercialized technological leap were all driven by the same prod — a collective decision by consumers as well as companies to push it forward. That’s why OPEC may want to rethink its outlook. Just this year, the world quietly hit the gas (no pun intended) on electric vehicles. As an example, Ford Motors (F) recently announced it would be spending $4.5 billion to bring 13 new electric or hybrid vehicles to the market by 2020. In some ways it’s an exciting prospect for owners of F stock, and in some ways it’s terrifying. Aside from a big chunk of money [which could get bigger once the company gets into it], a huge piece of Ford’s focus is now being directed toward something unknown, and technically, unproven. In some regards the company is proverbially burning the boats. And it’s not just Ford putting its money where its EV mouth is, and it’s not just happening in the U.S: Chinese automaker Geely Automobiles plans to drive 90% of its revenue from electric and hybrid vehicles by 2020. Other automakers are stepping up their efforts to make electric vehicles too. And it’s not just manufacturers. Governments are finally creating a real incentive to rely less on oil-burning vehicles and more on electric cars. China, the United States and most of Europe offer some sort of financial support to grow the EV industry. While the lip service — not to mention government support as well as commercial interest — has been around for years, it’s only been this year one could realistically say it’s all started to get real traction and work in concert. This new paradigm coupled with the inevitable improvement in battery efficiency and lower battery cost is going to dramatically change the automobile landscape … and perhaps sooner than anyone, including OPEC, recognizes. Fortunately, few investors took the OPEC outlook seriously, but for any who did, don’t sweat it. The predictions were based on the status quo, but the status quo is on the verge of a major change. Tesla is just a couple of years out from introducing a sub-$40,000 vehicle. Ford is five years out from introducing thirteen hybrid or electric vehicles. Meanwhile, the Nissan Leaf and Chevy Volt are still around. Though sales of current models appear to be stalling, the buzz is that many would-be buyers are waiting for upcoming launches of previously-announced EVs rather than opting for gas-powered cars. In other words, the tide has turned because we as a society now have the will to make it happen. That’s the big difference between now and just a couple of years ago. Oh, electric vehicles still won’t become the norm rather than the exception this coming year, but five years isn’t an unrealistic outlook. In 25 years, the recently-published OPEC outlook will be comically wrong, not unlike technology journalist Clifford Stoll was back in 1995 when he wrote this of the then-budding Internet: “Then there’s cyberbusiness. We’re promised instant catalog shopping-just point and click for great deals. We’ll order airline tickets over the network, make restaurant reservations and negotiate sales contracts. Stores will become obsolete. So how come my local mall does more business in an afternoon than the entire Internet handles in a month? Even if there were a trustworthy way to send money over the Internet-which there isn’t-the network is missing a most essential ingredient of capitalism: salespeople.” The advent of eBay, PayPal, Expedia and Amazon were all underway just a few years later. Now they’re a routine part of our daily lives. OPEC is just as wrong now as Stoll was then. As of this writing, James Brumley did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities. [© investorplace.com] ... http://gas2.org/2015/12/26/opec-to-evs-we-sneer-in-your-general-direction/ OPEC To EVs: We Sneer In Your General Direction December 26th, 2015 ... says OPEC in a new 470 page report ... ... [dated] https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/opec-wronghow-greedy-you-chad-graham Opec is WRONG....How greedy are you?? Sep 2, 2015 ... http://www.marketwatch.com/story/opec-is-wrong-to-think-it-can-outlast-us-on-oil-prices-2014-12-02# Opinion: OPEC is wrong to think it can outlast U.S. on oil prices Dec 2, 2014 Tim Mullaney ... the sheiks have made what’s likely to become a sucker’s bet ... http://blog.caranddriver.com/milan-and-rome-to-temporarily-ban-cars-so-leave-the-lambos-at-home/ Milan and Rome to Temporarily Ban Cars, So Leave the Lambos at Home December 24, 2015 ... no mention of letting electric vehicles toot around either city ... pizzas are illegal in ... San Vitaliano ... https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/weathers-good-airs-bad-rome-milan-ban-cars-182807329.html ... http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/dec/24/politicians-judges-women-exempt-new-delhi-car-ban Dec 24, 2015 EVs and all women exempt from Delhi.in car ban ... http://www.scotsman.com/news/world/second-beijing-smog-alert-forces-car-ban-and-schools-closure-1-3979676 Second Beijing smog alert forces car ban and schools closure Dec 18, 2015 http://www.scmp.com/news/china/policies-politics/article/1893598/heavy-smog-cloak-northern-china-until-cold-front-moves ... http://www.theguardian.com/global-development-professionals-network/2015/dec/18/choking-on-your-commute-how-air-pollution-is-strangling-lagos Choking on your commute... air pollution is strangling Lagos, Nigeria ... http://www.dutchnews.nl/news/archives/2015/12/councils-not-parliament-have-say-on-banning-old-cars-minister/ Dutch banning old cars ... https://www.outandaboutlive.co.uk/motorhomes/news/diesel-under-threat-as-air-pollution-worsens Diesel under threat as UK air pollution worsens Dec 10, 2015 ... http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/dec/17/illegal-air-pollution-will-blight-many-uk-cities-for-at-least-five-years Illegal air pollution will blight many UK cities for at least five years Dec 17, 2015 ... http://www.westfieldtimes.com/science/smog-shuts-faculties-in-bosnias-sarajevo/14886/ Smog shuts faculties in Bosnia's Sarajevo [Dec 24, 2015] ... http://georgiatoday.ge/news/2484/Breathe-Deep%3A-If-You-Want-Change,-You-Have-to-Fight-For-It Georgian air pollution: If You Want Change, You Have to Fight For It Dec 24, 2015 ... http://news.asiaone.com/news/asia/smog-north-thailand-worsens Smog in north Thailand worsens Dec 4, 2015 ... https://agenda.weforum.org/2015/06/which-is-the-worlds-most-polluted-city/ The world’s most polluted cities Jun 25 2015 ... India, Pakistan, Iran, Qatar, Turkey, Bangladesh ... ... http://www.stateoftheair.org/2015/city-rankings/most-polluted-cities.html Most Polluted U.S. Cities For EVLN EV-newswire posts use: http://evdl.org/evln/ {brucedp.150m.com} -- View this message in context: http://electric-vehicle-discussion-list.413529.n4.nabble.com/EVLN-OPEC-Is-Wrong-EVs-Are-a-Game-Changer-tp4679386.html Sent from the Electric Vehicle Discussion List mailing list archive at Nabble.com. _______________________________________________ UNSUBSCRIBE: http://www.evdl.org/help/index.html#usub http://lists.evdl.org/listinfo.cgi/ev-evdl.org Read EVAngel's EV News at http://evdl.org/evln/ Please discuss EV drag racing at NEDRA (http://groups.yahoo.com/group/NEDRA)
