On 15 Jul 2025 at 16:39, Peter Eckhoff via EV wrote:

> This may be a world wide figure. 

Maybe, but I don't think so.  The article is illustrated with a US map, and 
specifically mentions the US, "nationwide," and "state by state."

I also don't share the author's optimism - but then I'm a cynic, so ...

The US BEV share was 8.7% in 2024. Already that's not exactly at the high 
water mark worldwide - China was at 25% and Europe at 15%. 

So the US is starting weak, and it's hard to see EV sales there rising in 
the short term.  

The main reason is that you're losing your $7.5k tax credit.  That will 
probably goose the 2025 numbers some, as EV buyers scramble for the 
remaining crumbs, but then they'll crash in 2026.

For an idea of what might happen, look at New Zealand.  In 2023 14% of its 
vehicle sales were EVs.  In 2024 a new government took over and killed off 
their EV subsidy.  In 2024 only 5.5% of sales were EVs - a 61% hit.

Weakening fuel efficiency regulations and eliminating the long-standing 
option for states to regulate their own air quality is going to hurt too.  

Here's Bloomberg's view, though I think even that's optimistic:

https://ca-
times.brightspotcdn.com/dims4/default/ece0ce5/2147483647/strip/true/crop/1240
x782+0+0/resize/1200x757!/format/webp/quality/75/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcaliforni
a-times-
brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F32%2F82%2Ff8239f122c3ddd2951a491eea810%2F1x-
1.png

Shortcut URL: https://cntp.me/xTbHZkF

David Roden, EVDL moderator & general lackey

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