On Thu, May 28, 2009 at 3:49 PM, Bruno Marchal <marc...@ulb.ac.be> wrote: > > What do you thing is the more probable events that you will live which > one is the more probable? What is your most rational choice among
So if nothing is riding on the outcome of my choice, then it seems rational to choose the option that will make me right in the most futures, which is option 6, white noise. If there's one world for each unique pattern of pixels, then most of those worlds will be "white noise" worlds, and making the choice that makes me right in the most worlds seems as rational as anything else. Though, if there is something significant riding on whether I choose correctly or not, then I have to decide what is most important to me: minimizing my suffering in the worlds where I'm wrong, or maximizing my gains in the worlds where I'm right. If there isn't significant suffering likely in the losing worlds, then I will be much more likely to base my decision on the observed or calculated probabilities, as Papineau suggests. BUT, if there is significant suffering likely in the worlds where I lose, I might very well focus making a choice that will minimize that suffering. In which case I will generally not base much of my decision on the "probabilities", since it is my view that all outcomes occur. However, going a little further, this assumes that I only make one bet. As I mentioned before, I think that I will make all possible bets. So, even if I make the "safe" suffering-minimizing bet in this branch, I know that in a closely related branch I will make the risky "gain-maximizing" bet and say to hell with the Kellys in the losing worlds. So I know that even if I make the safe bet, there's another Kelly two worlds over making the risky bet, which will result in a Kelly suffering the consequences of losing over there anyway. So maybe I'll say, "screw it", and make the risky bet myself. Ultimately, it doesn't matter. Every Kelly in every situation with every history is actualized. So my subjective feeling that I am making choices is irrelevant. Every choice is going to get made, so my "choice" is really just me taking my place in the continuum of Kellys. > And I am asking you, here and now, what do you expect the most > probable experience you will feel tomorrow, when I will do that > experiment. So to speak of expectations is to appeal to my "single world" intuitions. But we know that intuition isn't a reliable guide, since there are many aspects of reality that are unintuitive. So I think the fact that I have an intuitive expectation that things will happen a certain way, and only that way, is neither here nor there. --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Everything List" group. To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com To unsubscribe from this group, send email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list?hl=en -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
