Oh come on now - a climate change denier are you? For real?
From: everything-list@googlegroups.com [mailto:everything-list@googlegroups.com] On Behalf Of Stephen Paul King Sent: Friday, April 04, 2014 7:07 PM To: everything-list@googlegroups.com Subject: Re: Climate models read this paper please and ponder its implications if applied universally. http://ajae.oxfordjournals.org/content/early/2014/02/24/ajae.aau001.abstract On Fri, Apr 4, 2014 at 9:25 PM, Chris de Morsella <cdemorse...@yahoo.com> wrote: From: everything-list@googlegroups.com [mailto:everything-list@googlegroups.com] On Behalf Of Stephen Paul King Here is the thing. You are complete discounting future technological advancements in your analysis. 50 years ago, no one considered shale to be a source ore for hydrocarbons. Soon enough we will be syphoning hydrogen off Jupiter. Why the panic over resources? Lean forward man! Think forward. No challenge was ever overcome by fearful people. Here is the thing you are betting the destiny of planet earth that these hypothetical future technologies will become realized in time for the human race to cheat destiny again and again. That is putting a lot of faith in these hypothetical future technologies you seem to be counting on. Don't get me wrong I am actually one who wishes we already had permanent settlements on the Moon, L2, choice NEOs, and Mars; I see and understand the incredible resource potential of up there. Think of the solar capacity.. Alone. Even at earth orbital the solar flux is around 1400 w/m2; in the micro-gravity and almost constant insolation of high geosynchronous orbit it even begins to look attractive. But - we are not there. We are here. On earth, with the technology we do have and facing imminent critical energy supply peaks that will suck the oxygen out of any grand ideas as we burn the last of what we have in global conflict. Is this a sure outcome; I certainly hope not, but given how politics operate globally and looking at the military focused strategy the US has chosen to face this. well let's just say it leads me to conclude that the odds are high that as a species we are going to blow it. It's too bad, and I wish it were otherwise. It is how I see things - given my understanding of the nature of human mass behavior. Cheers, Chris P.S. I am still waiting for 2001 to happen and it is 2014. Point being that some things - like getting from earth to orbit for example - remain stubbornly difficult and have remained at the very limit of what we can do with technology (in spite of forty years of technological advancement from the days of the Apollo program) Same with fusion, always just fifty years away.. Maybe someday, but where will the next ITER get its funding from? In a world swallowed up by the existential need for industrial nations to secure their flow of petroleum supplies, and likely going to war (how many more wars for "Freedom" do you see in the near future?) to do so.. There is not going to be a whole lot left for every single other human activity. Do not underestimate how terribly blind the logic of power can be, constrained by the deadly calculus of the psychopathic mindset - that knows that this is what they would do if they were in the other guys shoes. so they do it. because they know he is surely doing it as well. Power when it is not tempered by wisdom is the most dangerous poison in the universe. and in us humans, it all so easily blinds us to all that is good. We live in a world ruled by power; this is the fundamental problem - IMO. On Fri, Apr 4, 2014 at 6:51 PM, Chris de Morsella <cdemorse...@yahoo.com> wrote: Hey Stephen - try refining it from your dirt. Your garden dirt is not ore quality; it is not a feasible supply. Do you believe the minuscule quantities of uranium in your garden's dirt should be counted as part of global uranium reserves? Why exactly? By your count the garden dirt argument - taken to the absurd - why not include all the uranium in the solar system, our entire galaxy - after all who knows maybe someday with some technology will it all may be recoverable.. What have you been reading? From: everything-list@googlegroups.com [mailto:everything-list@googlegroups.com] On Behalf Of Stephen Paul King Sent: Friday, April 04, 2014 3:33 PM To: everything-list@googlegroups.com Subject: Re: Climate models Hey Chris, About a uranium shortage. Come scrape up a few yards of dirt near where I live and you'lll find lots and lots of uranium. We have a huge problem with the radon gas that the stuff generates... What have you been reading? On Fri, Apr 4, 2014 at 3:56 PM, John Clark <johnkcl...@gmail.com> wrote: On Thu, Apr 3, 2014 at 4:05 PM, Chris de Morsella <cdemorse...@yahoo.com> wrote: > Solar PV is here today Solar PV has been here for 60 years and THOUSANDS of times more money has been spent developing it than has been spent on LFTR R&D, and yet solar PV is still just a rounding error in our total energy budget. > I see the practical technological limits that constrain what can actually be accomplished. Apparently not. >> Oh for heavens sake! There is no Uranium shortage and Thorium is 4 times as abundant and easier to separate from it's ore than Uranium is, and we can only get energy from .7% of the Uranium but we can use 100% of the Thorium! So do you REALLY want to say we shouldn't consider Thorium because we can't get enough of it?? > Wrong again I want to know if I really understand you correctly, are you saying that a major problem (or even a minor problem) with using Thorium for energy is that there isn't enough of it? Is that really your position? > the world is facing a recoverable uranium peak that will be reached within a decade or two (at current extraction rates, if nuclear is ramped up peak uranium will be reached that much sooner). Uranium prices are the lowest they've been in 8 years. I found a chart for the last 5 years: And so I would like to make a public bet with you and see if you're willing to put your money where your mouth is. You say the shit will hit the fan within a decade or two, so if before April 4 2024 there is widespread reactor shutdowns because of Uranium shortages (and not due to temper tantrums from environmentalists) then, assuming I'm still alive, I will send you $1000; if there are not widespread reactor shutdowns because of Uranium shortages before April 4 2024 then, assuming you're still alive, you only needs to send me $100. So do we have a bet? Come on I'm giving you 10 to 1 odds! >> You are the one making the claim that extracting 12 grams of Thorium from one meter of dirt would take more energy than the Thorium could produce, so it is up to you to show it's true; although nobody would be dumb enough to bother with such dirt when there is ore that contains 50% Thorium available. > Whatever. Yes, whatever. > I do not inhabit the same magical thinking universe you seem to live in. How nice for you, therefore by accepting my bet you can make an easy $1000. 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