On 2/18/2018 6:11 AM, Lawrence Crowell wrote:
On Sunday, February 18, 2018 at 4:25:07 AM UTC-6, Russell Standish wrote:
On Sat, Feb 17, 2018 at 05:19:22PM -0800, Brent Meeker wrote:
>
>
> On 2/17/2018 4:58 PM, agrays...@gmail.com <javascript:> wrote:
> > But what is the criterion when AI exceeds human intelligence? AG
> >
> >
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-02-16/father-artificial-intelligence-singularity-less-30-years-away
<https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-02-16/father-artificial-intelligence-singularity-less-30-years-away>
>
> So we need to sharpen the question. Exactly *what* is 30yrs away?
>
> Brent
>
According to the title (I haven't RTFA), it's the
singularity. Starting from a point where a machine designs,
and manufactures improved copies of itself, technology will
supposedly
veer from it's exponential path (Moore's law) etc to hyperbolic.
Being
hyperbolic, it reaches infinity within a finite period of time,
expected to be a matter of months perhaps.
Given that we really don't understand creative processes (not even
good old fashioned biological evolution is really well understood),
I'm sceptical about the 30 years prognostication. It is mostly
based on
extrapolating Moore's law, which is the easy part of technological
change.
This won't be a problem for my children - my grandchildren
perhaps, if
I ever end up having any.
Cheers
One thing a computer can not do is ask a question. I can ask a
question and program a computer to help solve the problem. In fact I
am doing a program to do just this. I am working a computer program to
model aspects of gravitational memory. What the computer will not do,
at least computers we currently employ will not do is to ask the
question and then work to solve it. A computer can find a numerical
solution or render something numerically, but it does not
spontaneously act to ask the question or to propose something creative
to then solve or render the solution.
You must never have applied for a loan online.
Brent
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