On Thu, Feb 6, 2025 at 11:48 PM Brent Meeker <[email protected]> wrote:
*>> If AFTER I hit a golf ball 200 yards and we all see that it landed on >> one particular blade of grass and you ask what was the probability that it >> landed on that one particular blade the correct answer would be 100% >> despite the fact that there are millions of other blades of grass that it >> could've landed on. * > > *> Depends on how the word "was" is meant. If "was" refers to before you > hit the ball, then the probability was not 1.0. Even after it hit the > ground and was rolling it was not 1. It only "was" 1 if "was" refers to > now.* > *The ambiguity doesn't come from "was" but from another English word "probability", unfortunately the same word is used to describe 4 different things;* *The ambiguity doesn't come from "was" but from another English word "probability", unfortunately the same word is used to describe 4 different * *things:* *1) Probability is the ratio of favorable outcomes to all outcomes. * *2) Probability is the long run frequency of an event occurring (which cannot assign a probability to a single event).* *3) Probability is the square of the absolute value of a quantum wave function.* *4) Probability is a degree of belief which can be updated when more information becomes available. * *In the above you're using the last meaning of the word, the Bayesian meaning, and it is subjective. Before I open the box the belief I have that I am in the universe where the cat is alive is only at 50%, when I open the box I gain new information and my uncertainty disappears in both universes, in one it climbs to 100% and in the other it drops to 0%. * * John K Clark See what's on my new list at Extropolis <https://groups.google.com/g/extropolis>* d2z -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Everything List" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. To view this discussion visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/everything-list/CAJPayv1dkQz1LD1VB53_551MSnk74QQsQ-hHYhx%3D59qFtxKcVg%40mail.gmail.com.
