On 2/11/2025 10:01 AM, John Clark wrote:
*Sam Altman, the CEO of OpenAI, has recently made a number of points
which I think are super important:*
*
*
*1) Open AI has found that the amount of intelligence an AI has is
roughly equivalent to the logarithm of the number of flops it uses, so
a small increase in computer power leads to a big increase in
intelligence.*
The logarithm function is sublinear. So a big increase increase in
flops equates to a small increase in intelligence.
*
*
*2) The cost of using an AI falls by about 10x every 12 months, this
is far faster than Moore's Law which is about doubling every 24 months. *
*
*
*3) If the intelligence of an AI increases linearly with time (like
the function 2n does) then the socioeconomic value it produces will
increase super-exponentially (like the function 2^2^n does)
*
It seems to me that (2) and (3) are properties of new technologies in
general. Once they reach the level of application they exhibit a burst
of growth.
Brent*
*
*
*
*4) By the end of THIS YEAR, Altman expects an AI Will be the best
computer programmer in the world. *
*OpenAI CEO: "Super Human Coders By End of 2025"*
<https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=48-Cg4i-8oI>
*John K Clark See what's on my new list at Extropolis
<https://groups.google.com/g/extropolis>*
ldg
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