Monday, Apr. 21, 2008 By SCOTT
MACLEOD/TEHRAN
Iranians gather at a newsstand on the
streets of Hamadan, Iran.
Bobby Model / National Geographic /
Getty
From President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's office and the sitting rooms
of high-ranking mullahs to university campuses and the Farsi-language
blogosphere, Iranians are following the American presidential race more avidly
than ever before. That's partly because they're eager for the exit of
President Bush, who branded Iran part of an "Axis of Evil" and implicitly
raised the possibility of a military strike against the country over its
alleged nuclear weapons program. But the Iranians' interest is also
driven by a sense among many Iranians that the candidacy of Barack Obama
offers real hope for repairing the U.S.-Iranian relationship. Commenting on
the Iranian preference for a Democrat in the White House, Sergei
Barseghian, a columnist for the reformist Etemad
Meli newspaper noted that in Farsi, the words Oo ba ma would translate
as "He's with us."
Senator Obama would be the first to disagree with that, of
course, but the sympathy his candidacy has aroused among many
Iranians stems from a variety of factors, including his African
heritage, his partly Muslim family ties, and a belief that Obama
would move to end Washington's 30-year Cold War with Tehran — or
at least reduce the prospect of a U.S. military attack on the
Islamic Republic. "I think people want him to win,"
Shi'ite cleric Mehdi Karroubi, the reformist former parliament
speaker defeated by Ahmadinejad in Iran's 2005 presidential contest,
told TIME.
But Obama isn't the only candidate drawing careful scrutiny in
Tehran. Some Iranians are also intrigued by John McCain, pointing
out that Henry Kissinger, a "realist" McCain adviser,
recently called for "direct negotiations" between the U.S.
and Iran. Nonetheless, many consider McCain a hawk and fear his
experiences as an American POW in the Vietnam War may hardwire him
for hostility towards revolutionary governments. All Iranians seem
aware of McCain's "Bomb bomb bomb, bomb bomb Iran" Beach
Boys imitation, and many take it as an indication of his
inclinations. Yet many anti-regime Iranians are praying — albeit
quietly — for a McCain victory. Some Iranians believe that
Ahmadinejad also favors McCain, in the belief that continued
confrontation with the U.S. — as long as it stops short of all-out
war — will enable Iranian hard-liners to rally popular backing
against reformists who seek to improve ties with the West.
Iranians are divided on Hillary Clinton, largely basing their
views on the record in the Middle East of her husband, who Iranians
expect would effectively be her senior foreign policy adviser.
Mohammed Atrianfar, an adviser to former President Akbar Hashemi
Rafsanjani, argues that Bill Clinton has a "peace-seeking
image" among Iranians. Then-Secretary of State Madeleine
Albright, now a Hillary adviser, publicly accepted American
responsibility for involvement in the 1953 coup in Iran and
subsequent support for the repressive regime of the Shah. Iranian
diplomats complain, however, that Clinton also imposed economic
sanctions on Iran.
It's not only the policy expectations that account for Obama's
popularity: his Third World ethnic background and the Muslim faith
of his father's Kenyan family — even his middle name, Hussein, the
grandson of the Prophet Muhammad and a revered figure in the Shi'ite
Islam practiced in Iran — offer points of affinity that some
analysts believe could give Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali
Khamenei, the political cover to make a gesture of reconciliation to
the country long decried in Tehran as "the Great Satan."
But it's Obama's declared willingness to engage in "aggressive
personal diplomacy" with the Iranian leadership that has
generated the most interest among senior officials in Tehran, since
this would mark a sea-change in Washington's approach. "Obama
is a man of engagement, a man of negotiations," one Iranian
official told TIME. Amir Mohebbian, an analyst close to Iranian
conservative politicians, argues that "the mentality of Iranian
decision makers is ready for that." He adds: "I think that
the coming of Obama — maybe, maybe — helps to solve this
problem, but it needs bravery, from both sides."
There are doubts, however. Many Iranians feel that the American
political establishment would put the brakes on any rapprochement
until Iran ended its hostility toward Israel. There's also concern
in Iran that Obama's inexperience in foreign affairs may prompt him
as President to actually take a harder line on Iran rather than risk
appearing to be a weak leader.
And precisely because of the attributes they find most positive
in Obama, many Iranian leaders believe he's unlikely to be elected.
Iran's Vice President Esfandiar Rahim Mashaee, whose daughter
married President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's son last week, told TIME
that Obama "seems not a bad person" and said that, if he
were an American voter, he might even cast a ballot for the Illinois
Senator. But Mashaee thinks Iran will more likely be facing McCain
or Clinton in the White House. "It's far-fetched that he will
be allowed to become President," Mashaee insisted. Pressed to
elaborate, Ahmadinejad's deputy declined to specify whether it was
because of Obama's race or other factors. He just laughed and
exclaimed, "Let's make a bet on it!"
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