June 3, 2008
Analysis: What went wrong for Clinton
By Chuck Raasch
Gannett News Service Following is a Gannett News Service political analysis:
WASHINGTON — Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton spent a year as her party’s prohibitive front-runner, then five months mostly reeling from forces she and her advisers could not, or did not, see coming. In one of her many debates with Barack Obama, a wistful Clinton framed the historic nature of her campaign this way: “I am thrilled to be running to be the first woman president, which I think would be a sea change in our country and around the world.” Almost as an afterthought, she added, “Either of us will make history.”
Clinton had not yet conceded, but Obama claimed a place in history Tuesday as the first black nominee of a major political party. By winning the needed 2,118 delegates, he won the mantle of change, outspending and outmaneuvering her.
Here are seven reasons Clinton failed:
1. A yearning for change: Clinton underestimated Democrats’ yearning for something beyond politics as usual and their disdain for the Iraq war and George W. Bush. Clinton’s 2002 vote to authorize the war became a symbol of status quo, allowing Obama, who had opposed the war, to become the agent of change on an issue that had inflamed the left.
When the nomination fight boiled down to Clinton versus Obama, the 35 years of experience Clinton constantly talked about became a liability as Obama became an exciting and plausible alternative.
“She made an initial strategic blunder by focusing on experience in a Democratic primary,” said Dick Morris, who once advised former President Bill Clinton and has become a harsh critic of Sen. Clinton. “They don’t want experience. They want change and newness. That’s why they’re Democrats.”
2. Hot and cold persona: Clinton could never seem to settle on a political style or persona. In her defense, she may have been hurt by gender bias. While Obama drew praise for his ability to invoke passion in his audiences, emotion was radioactive for Clinton. She was criticized as either too hot or too cold, rarely a transcendent figure, and not authentic. When she became teary-eyed before the New Hampshire primary, defenders saw it as a rare glimpse into her soul while detractors saw it as calculated.
She also hurt herself with false claims of ducking sniper fire during a trip to Bosnia when she was first lady. A Gallup Poll in March found half of Americans doubted her honesty and trustworthiness, twice the percentage that had the same doubts about Obama or presumptive Republican nominee John McCain.
3. Race trumped gender: When Democratic voters assessed the breakthrough aspects of having a black man or white woman head their ticket, race ultimately won out over gender. The excitement over Obama’s candidacy and the prospect of the first black nominee of a major political party brought young voters into a process they had ignored in the past. Black women, especially, were torn, but overwhelmingly settled on Obama after he won predominantly white Iowa.
Although Clinton still regularly won among women, the movement of black women and younger women to Obama cut into her strongest base, said Debbie Walsh, director of the Center for American Women and Politics at Rutgers University.
4. Tactical errors: While Clinton focused on winning the big states, Obama racked up a delegate lead by winning most of the smaller states’ primaries and caucuses. Clinton put a lot of her eggs in the Super Tuesday basket and her campaign seemed unprepared fiscally and strategically for the fight to go on past Feb. 5, when more than 20 states voted. But no clear victor emerged that day and there were more states than that left to vote. Clinton had to lend her campaign money, and her campaign manager stepped down amid reports of infighting among her strategists.
Clinton was ill served by other advisers, whose ego clashes or professional blunders often made news. She demoted longtime “chief strategist” Mark Penn after it was revealed he was working to help the government of Colombia get a free trade agreement with the U.S. while Clinton was campaigning against the deal.
5. So close on issues: Obama outflanked Clinton on the left or successfully argued there was little difference between them on everything from ending Bush’s tax cuts for the rich to improving health care to revisiting trade deals like NAFTA. In debates, the two Democratic rivals themselves noted they had similar positions on some issues.
And while both agreed on the need to get out of Iraq, Clinton had to defend her 2002 vote authorizing the use of force in Iraq while Obama repeatedly pointed out his early opposition to the war.
“While I think that her vote on Iraq was a responsible vote, she may have underestimated the degree to which the far left in the Democratic Party is on the ascendancy,” said Gary Bauer, a longtime conservative activist and 2000 Republican presidential candidate.
As voters’ concerns dramatically shifted from the war to the economy, both candidates changed messages. Clinton was able to win some big, late primaries with an economic populist message targeting blue-collar voters, but by then she was behind in delegates. Obama painted her proposal for a 90-day gas-tax holiday as politics-as-usual pandering that wouldn’t solve the energy crisis.
6. One word: Bill: While some voters fond of Bill Clinton’s presidency saw voting for Hillary Clinton as getting two for one, others loathed the thought of the scandal-tainted ex-president back in the White House. A string of Bush-Clinton-Bush-Clinton presidencies also was an unpleasant thought for some. Then Bill Clinton infused race into the campaign during the crucial South Carolina primary by comparing Obama’s victory to Jesse Jackson’s in 1988. He spent later stages of the campaign hitting small colleges and small towns where he faced less media scrutiny.
7. Obama the phenom: In Obama, the candidate became the message. Obama’s national appeal, backed up by a broader and deeper national campaign strategy than Clinton had, was arguably the most important reason for her loss. As a long campaign progressed, Obama got more comfortable on the stump and in debates, drew massive crowds and evoked “Change” sign-waving, cell phone photo-snapping and swooning from supporters. Her supporters complained that the media, wowed by the phenomenon, didn’t ask Obama tough questions.
Capitalizing on the ease of Internet fundraising, Obama turned the phenom factor into a political gold mine, out-raising Clinton, sometimes at an unprecedented clip of more than $1 million a day.
|
