akasha_108, As Einstein has proved, the simplest formula is the best formula to describe nature's laws. If you have a theory that's effective, you should be able to use the variable sets available in jyotish, such as the 9 grahas and 12 houses in the natal chart.
Jyotish is a very sophisticated model of human values and interactions. It needs a knowledgeable person to use the model to describe reality and possible trends of the future based on known possibilities. Regards, John R. --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, akasha_108 <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, "markmeredith2002" > <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, "John" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > Bhairitu, > > > > > > A number of astrologers predicted bad times starting around the > first of September. I remember one set posted here a couple months > back (plus I remember hearing one for 2005 from a noted astrologer > 10 years ago). > > > > Astrology cannot precisely predict what is going to happen but > the propensity given the planetary configurations for what might > happen. Far better than guessing. Reality is all just the > overtone series from the big bang > > > > > There were probably 1 or 2 astrologers predicting bad times in Sept > > and also a few astrologers predicting good times. The 1 or 2 > > predicting bad times probably have predicted bad times on numerous > > occasions and were wrong. Astrologers have a way of conveniently > > forgettting all the times they were wrong and advertising the few > > times they're generally right. > > > Thats why they should create a model of their prediction, then show > using historic data why the model has some merit, make some future > predictions based on the model, and then "publish" such. > > > For example: quantitatively define "Bad times". Is it a decrease in > GNP. Is it an increase in unemployment, crime, deaths, injuries? This > would be the dependnet variable in a simple regression model. Lets say > the hypothesis, per jyothish theory, is that Sept through Dec should > see significantly higher unemployment. > > Then define the independent variables that one speculates drive > variations over time of unemployment, both jyothish and > economic/social. The jyotish variables might include: Saturn > transiting the 10th house (employment/ career), Jupiter being aspected > by a malefic planet, etc. > > The economic variabels might include GNP, interest rates, foreign > trade balances, weather variables, seasonal variables (for example, is > it summer with lots more students working), corporate cashflow (funds > available for re-investment) and tax rates. > > The model would have the form: > > UnEmploy = S10 + JUmal + GNP + i + FT + Wea + Sea + CF + T + b > > -- b being the "error term" the unexplained factors which influence > the dependnet variable. > > > Testing this model specification would then require a regression > analysis (a common statistical method) over perhaps 20 years of > monthly data to show which variables are significant in explaining the > variation over time of unemployment. And which are not. Those that > contribute nothing would be dropped from the model. Through iterative > testing, after dropping insignificant variables a final model will > result. > > If the jyotish variables contribute to explaining the historic ups > and downs of employment, then their predictive power will be > demonstrated. If they contribute nothing to the explanatory power of > the model, it would mean that, for this case, for this model, the > jyotish variables provide no explanatory or predictive power. It would > not prove jyotish was not effective, just that in this model > specification, the chosen jyotish variables did not prove of any value. > > And if the jyotish variables do reamin in the model, the "coeficients" > of each varible that the regression analysis provides, will indicate > the relative effect of the jyotish variables, relative to any or all > of the economic ones. For example, it might show that while the > jyotish variables do help explain the ups and downs of employment, the > influence is only about 10% relative to the other economic variables. > > It would be highly unlikely that any model would find the jyotish > model explain it all, that they by themselves, are both significant, > and make the use of economic variables redundant. This implies that > trying to predict economic or social events solely with the use of > jyotish models will probably be ineffective, or quite vague at best. > > And such a regression based model will show the periods when a jyotish > variable has an effect and, AS importantly, when it doesn't. For > example, some jyotish predictions are of the form, such as in my > adjacent post, "there will be peace between Country A and B over the > next 12 months" because jupiter will transit the 7th house of > relations. Gee, that sounds pretty specific and testable. But its > bogus if there has been peace between country A and B for the past 50 > years. An explanatpory variable -- such as jupiter transiting the 7th > house, is useful ONLY if something specific occurs during that period, > and does NOT occur when when Juptier is not transiting the 7th house. > If the conditions is always occuring, or always not occuring, then it > is not prediction. Yet its amazing how may jyotish predictions take > this form. > > > Until this sort of analysis is done, repeatedly, over many different > types of model specifications and dependent variables (crime, income, > health, mortality rates etc.) over many regions and countries (or > individuals) then jyotish will remain a hodgepodge of weak claims. ------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor --------------------~--> Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. 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