> > > If the DC crime rate was > > > relatively flat during the 90s, maybe that's an ok methodology. But > > > metro cities throughout the nation experienced a dramatic drop in > > > crime rate starting around 1992-1993 and continuing for several yrs > > > and therefore the study can't prove its point w/o controlling for > > > this major factor. > > > > They did, by "predicting" what the crime rate *would* have > > been for that period that year on the basis of the previous > > five-year trend. It's true that there might have been > > *somewhat* less of a reduction if the crime rate had started > > going down in early 1993, but you would have no reason to > > see the sharp, sudden drop they measured during the project > > on the basis of the decline you're talking about (much less > > the return to "normal" a few weeks after the study).
The 5 yr trend is meaningless - the trend for violent crime was significantly up during the 80s and then it unexpectedly and dramatically turned down in the 90s, then flattened out near the end of that decade. All sorts of studies came out in the 90s supposedly proving that this or that particular program was reducing crime in this or that city, but in retrospect we now know that crime was going down in all large cities, even ones not doing this or that. I'm saying the study design needs to be revisited due to what we now know about the unique crime trends in the 90s. As far as the sharp dramatic drops and returns to normal, I want to see the actual data before trusting these describtors of it. OF course, akasha is right that even if the statistics hold, you still need more studies looking at it from different angles. I dont' see that ever happening. I was on the DC committee that originally came up with the DC course idea a couple yrs before 93 at which time MMY trashed it saying the M-effect had already been proven enough. For some reason he consented when hagelin revived the idea in 93, but I don't see him agreeing again and I can't see the tmo ever getting nearly enough people to participate in such an experiment. So what's going to be the practical result of all these half or 3/4 baked M-effect studies? ------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor --------------------~--> Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM --------------------------------------------------------------------~-> To subscribe, send a message to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Or go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ and click 'Join This Group!' Yahoo! Groups Links <*> To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ <*> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] <*> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
