Michael Jardine wrote:
>    Pete,
>    
>    A brute force attack on an AES-256 encrypted drive that has a STRONG
> "Password" or Key would take years.  Of course, no one could prevent a
> brute-force attack if the attacker gained physical access to the drive in
> question - however if the users password (and thus the key) isn't 12345678
> or some other Dilbertian string, then it's realistically impossible to
> retrieve the key in a reasonable time frame.

I'm not raising objections just to be querulous, but rather to 
think ahead for possible corner cases which perhaps should be 
considered when developing policies.

Okay, we all know Moore Law, right? And we all know that the 
needed lifespan for the encryption is based on the value of the 
data and the time frame for required protection, Right?

For discussion's sake let's assume that HD life is not an issue 
as bit copies will be made and duplicated as long as is needed to 
brute force the key. So what kind of data requires long term 
protection? Obviously plans for attacking someone need to only 
last until after the attack. The same can be said about almost 
all business data, be it credit card, billing, marketing, etc. 
Yes, these might require 20, even 50 year containment, but that 
is still relatively short.

What might need protection for more than 100 years is your DNA 
data. These days babies are checked at birth and the code could 
reveal information about you - susceptibility to disease and such 
- that might be used covertly to discriminate against you in one 
way or another. Given that I now regularly see obituaries for 
people over 100. Given the propensity to sue, in the US, at the 
drop of an imagined injury or defect in disclosure this might 
mean that you would have to protect DNA data for the lifespan of 
a person plus sometime afterward to prevent suits against the 
estate of the person. Add to this that estates seem to last well 
beyond the natural lifespan in some cases - the current minor 
flap around Kerouac or how the James Joyce and the Bertholt 
Brecht estates still attempt to control the use of their literary 
works are good examples - and the ability of lawyers in the US to 
create lawsuits I can well imagine that 150 years is not totally 
unreasonable.

Okay, what metric do we apply as a measuring stick for brute 
force resistance? Let's use the creation of collisions with one 
of the hash functions as a starting point. The figure as I recall 
  was a space of 2^59 taking 80,000 CPU hours to complete. The 
machine was a 256 CPU Itanium super computer in 2005. This works 
to to less than 14 days. Given that the same machine could be 
constructed with almost 4 times as much power today at a lower 
cost, how long will it be before it is realistic to crack 256 
bits of key space with machines that could be created in 50 years 
by people with even modest budgets?

Even assuming that Moore's law flattens, the price of CPU 
horsepower does not decline at the rate it has in the last 
several years, no new time v. effort approaches are thought of or 
other algorithmic attacks created, it is highly unlikely that the 
current AES-256 standard would last that long. Given this there 
are only two ways to protect your data, keep rolling the 
encryption standard and pray that a copy with a weaker key does 
not exist, or destruction of the data. Given human fallibility I 
think the choice is obvious - destruction once the need for 
access to the data has ended no matter how long that is.

Yes, this is a corner case that is highly unlikely to ever 
happen, but things happen. Look at D.B. Cooper and the 727 exit 
X. Who would have ever thought you could parachute from a jet and 
survive? While we don't know if he did survive, we do know that 
five months later Richard Floyd McCoy, Jr., using the name James 
Johnson, hijacked United Airlines Flight 855 and also parachuted 
into the night from its rear stairs with half a million dollars. 
Yes, McCoy was caught and convicted in federal court in June of 
1972 in Salt Lake City, Utah.

So you can see there are more possibilities than we have the 
vision to foresee, so I suggest that we just destroy the data 
*and* the key.


Best,

Allen

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