Has anyone ever done research on predicting a decision of the Supreme Court
based on the lopsidedness of the circuit split that the case is meant to
resolve?
I'm guessing that when there is a single dissenting circuit on a
well-defined dichotomous question, we'd see a lower probability of the
minority view being upheld as the number of circuits in the majority
increases. That is, SCOTUS is more likely to side with the majority when the
split is, say, 8-1 than when it is only 3-1 or so.
If such data have been compiled (by somebody with way too much time on his
hands), what would this factor, considered by itself, indicate about the
probability of Silveira being reversed on the individual-rights question,
assuming it were granted cert?
(Disclaimer: Obviously I'm aware that the *best* such statistics could
provide would be a crude measurement, and many other factors are involved.
But almost none of them would be quantifiable. If it could be shown, e.g.,
that there has only been one occasion on which the court has gone with the
lone dissenter when the split is 8 or more to 1, and 33 times in that
situation that it has gone with the majority, I think that would be useful
information.)
--
Bob Woolley
St. Paul, MN
[EMAIL PROTECTED]
I won't be wronged, I won't be insulted, and I won't be laid a hand on. I
don't do these things to other people, and I require the same from them.
-- John Wayne, as J.B. Books, in "The Shootist" (1976)
