Evan
Gifford wrote:
> What's curious to me is that flash player 8 was
> not markedly faster due to new "in-context upgrade" (which I
have had
> some trouble with).
> http://www.flickr.com/photos/mannu/148867953/
It may be hard to see on that graph, but I do know that the Flash Player
8 adoption rate exceeded that of v7 and prior... new records were
definitely set on this round, both before and after the auto-update
kicked in.
(When I look closely at that chart it seems to be showing beta adoption
as well... Flash Player 8 was released to the general public in the last
few days of August 2005... I think that chart is a rough estimate, given
that we've only seen two NPD audit periods so far, and that December
2006 has not quite arrived yet. ;-)
> Does anyone have a way to project the Flash player 9 adoption rate
> with the new "in context" upgrade?
> Also, I've called adobe last week and after some probing, got an
> updated "couple week" Flex 2.0 time estimate! .... can I trust
this?
It's hard for me to predict the future. I see no reason to expect that
the trends would reverse. The increasing acceptance of web video over
the psat three months seems like it would offer even more update spurs.
But then again, in March NPD found that above 70% of consumers tested
already had the 8.0 Player, which will suffice for most video sites for
awhile.
If you're trying to make a case to a client, I might suggest saying it
will be darn fast... that historical graph bears this out. Beyond that,
looking carefully at the client's particular audience may help... if
users do not have installation privileges on the machines they use, for
instance, then the general consumer adoption rate may not matter so much
as the IT staffing for a particular audience.
(That "Flex 2.0 Really Soon Now" estimate matches the guidance I've
seen
on this list, as well as elsewhere... I don't know the date, but we're
close.)
jd
--
John Dowdell . Adobe Developer Support . San
Francisco CA USA
Weblog: http://weblogs.macromedia.com/jd
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