When I analyze different language version I have developed a small model dividing up the versions into being in one out of three development phases -The buildup phase where mostly just more articles are added. Most of the bigger versions have left this phase but many newer one are still in this. I see it as a sign of failure on these, when the number of access to the version decrease on a yearly base, look at the sicilian, faroese or lombardian versions. Fewer accesses will mens less interest, fewer newer editor and probably decreasing value and quality that could very well be a sign bad circle making it successively worse -The consolidating phase, where most major versions are today (except en and de). Here quality, content and seriousness will be in focus. If we fail here we will no attract new editors and/or seniors ("we do not want to contribute to something too amateurish"). Perhaps the Danish version is a good example of the problems not succeeding in this phase. On the Swedish version we have for a year and a half have had focus on quality and this summer we actually see very promising figures, traffic increasing +20% on a yearly baser, record numbers of new articles, many new "older" contributers. Perhaps we have passed the mid-life crises? -The mature phase where I see only en and de being, and where focus is content sources etc. here I see a risk of us being too elitistic and discouraging younger contributers. Working very much with iw linking I actually am starting to find many articles missing on de:wp nowadays, mostly in "semi-serious" areas like comicstrip heroes etc. It could be a warning sign and a risk that we frighten away our original core of young enthusiasts to other wikis which in the long run could become competitors to de:wp.
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