-----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE----- Hash: SHA512 Colleagues,
Two questions re: pandemic flu simulation development. Thoughts? 1. Many of the models of pandemic flu are complex and model reality to a relatively high-level of granularity. I was thinking that a more simplistic model (SD with some ABM) might be suitable for creating a simulation that could be fed real-time data in the event of an actual pandemic. Data would come from surveillance with a goal of trying to determine (a) transmissibility and (b) antiviral resistance. Are others working on more simplistic models of pandemic flu that can be linked to surveillance data? What sort of surveillance data would be appropriate to flow into such a simple model for trying to ascertain probable values on the above factors? 2. I am struck by the fact that many simulations of pandemic flu focus only on key performance indicators related to influenza-related outcomes, while ignoring the broader costs that would clearly result from targeted layered containment strategies. That is, could the costs associated with trying to 'contain' a pandemic exceed the costs of just letting it run it's course? So, for example, we close the schools to reduce the number of infected, but this results in many children becoming malnourished because they rely on free school lunches for a key portion of their daily calories? How do we simulate the impact of well-meaning policies that decrease the spread of the disease (a benefit) but that also have tremendous costs when viewed outside the perspective of the spread of the disease? That is, how do we create a simulation to test policy decisions to ensure that well-meaning policies don't actually make a tough situation even worse. - -- Best regards, Justin Lyon M: +44 781 480 2797 (London, UK) E: [EMAIL PROTECTED] W: http://www.simudyne.com -----BEGIN PGP SIGNATURE----- Version: GnuPG v1.4.5 (MingW32) Comment: Using GnuPG with Mozilla - http://enigmail.mozdev.org iD8DBQFFvgNQhfoqghrmIrARCpduAJ9ybJDsZwCs5sD9xWJ/1fKyAHGqcwCgtX/Q jQGgLZDN1IdcA/YMeMyHlOw= =jwfl -----END PGP SIGNATURE----- ============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org
