[EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: > just because independent behaviors of emergent natural systems are not > susceptible to deterministic analysis of the usual sort doesn't mean they're > not observable, dangerous and generally predictable by other more general > means In a high-dimensional dynamical system characterized by a single summary statistic, like an index price of widely held stocks, the standard for `that's really weird but I know why' gets more strict, not less. Occam's razor would point toward those few factors shared by all of the components of the system that enter into this summary statistic. One class of factors are the intrinsic properties of the system (having many, potentially reinforcing, instances). Another class of factors are common perturbations to the whole system. Unless the time series phenomena occurs all of time in many sorts of contexts, it seems to me that external perturbations are the sort of explanation to be seeking. Otherwise, convincing evidence of an intrinsic explanation would be a price prediction algorithm based only on price with odds of success sufficient to make money!
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