David, Oh, sure, from an investment point of view there are enormous opportunities for 'leapfrogging'. It is actually evident in the vast phenomenon of globalization. A lot of the global integration of trade and markets is just that. I expect there's probably also a good supply of 'glowing examples' of successful integration with societies whose indigenous knowledge and social structures are still able to thrive with it.
The question is about the indigenous societies for which leapfrogging is just an alien culture invading and disrupting their way of life, rather than supporting their development as they would choose. Think about the vast and growing poverty that has been the result in so many places. That wide array of broken societies appears to include all the world's uncontrolled population growth. It's this huge number of societies largely destroyed by the wealth invasion that are the problem, not our ability to make money from it. What could 'we' do? I think for so many of the disasters erupting from our unthinking interference in nature, learning and speaking the truth is the first thing needed. Then the model I heard talked about this week at the AAAS sustainability science sessions was an all stakeholders directed research model, involving professionals, organizations, locals, funding and organizers, maybe using a systematic holistic learning process like my 4Dsustainability learning process. The trick, whatever process, seems to be to have the key 'hubs' in place, particularly the committed and directly involved funding organization and a few 'boundary spanning' individuals. If you only have one of the latter the whole project is in jeopardy of failure if they turn up missing one day. Phil Henshaw ¸¸¸¸.·´ ¯ `·.¸¸¸¸ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 680 Ft. Washington Ave NY NY 10040 tel: 212-795-4844 e-mail: [EMAIL PROTECTED] explorations: www.synapse9.com > -----Original Message----- > From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] > [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On Behalf Of Prof David West > Sent: Saturday, February 16, 2008 8:40 PM > To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group > Subject: Re: [FRIAM] limits of leapfrogging > > > > Late eighties - lowly grad student taking a development > course as part of his anthropology course. Term paper > concerned the feasibility of starting a 12volt appliance > manufacturing business in Africa with the initial market > being the RV crowd in the U.S. Within a relatively short > time the domestic market would pick up as locals earned > manufacturing wages. Local power to locally purchased > appliances would come from using the relatively crude solar > cell technology of that date. The total cost would have been > about .4% of what was then being invested in establishing > hydro power generation and high voltage distribution network. > Fast forward thirty years and the the Green trend that was > nascent then is in full flower and more and more effort is > being put into 12v as people seek to leave the grid. And a > solar cell panel on each rooftop is far less amenable to a > terrorist threat than the single tower that can bring down > the entire distribution network. > > I suspect that there are a lot more opportunities for > leapfrogging than the establishment would have us believe. > > > > On Thu, 14 Feb 2008 17:55:16 -0700, "Owen Densmore" > <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> said: > > The economist has a thought provoking article on the limits of > > leapfrogging: > > http://www.economist.com/opinion/displaystory.cfm?story_id=10650775 > > .. and attached for convenience. > > > > The idea is that, although in a few cases new technologies can be > > deployed in developing countries .. and sometimes better than the > > developed countries, new technologies often depend on older > ones, thus > > cannot easily be deployed by leapfrogging the older ones. > > > > -- Owen > > > > MOBILE phones are frequently held up as a good example of > technology's > > ability to transform the fortunes of people in the > developing world. > > In places with bad roads, few trains and parlous land > lines, mobile > > phones substitute for travel, allow price data to be > distributed more > > quickly and easily, enable traders to reach wider markets and > > generally make it easier to do business. The mobile phone > is also a > > wonderful example of a leapfrog technology: it has enabled > > developing countries to skip the fixed-line technology of the 20th > > century and move straight to the mobile technology of the > 21st. Surely > > other technologies can do the same? > > > > Alas, the mobile phone turns out to be rather unusual. Its > very nature > > makes it an especially good leapfrogger: it works using radio, so > > there is no need to rely on physical infrastructure such as > roads and > > phone wires; base-stations can be powered using their own > generators > > in places where there is no electrical grid; and you do not > have to be > > literate to use a phone, which is handy if your country's > education > > system is in a mess. There are some other examples of leapfrog > > technologies that can promote developmentmoving straight > to local, > > small-scale electricity generation based on solar panels or > biomass, > > for example, rather than building a centralised > power-transmission grid > > but there may not be very many. > > > > Indeed, as a recent report from the World Bank points out (see > > article), it is the presence of a solid foundation of intermediate > > technology that determines whether the latest technologies become > > widely diffused. It is all too easy to forget that in the > developed > > world, the 21st century's gizmos are underpinned by infrastructure > > that often dates back to the 20th or even the 19th. Computers and > > broadband links are not much use without a reliable > electrical supply, > > for example, and the latest medical gear is not terribly > helpful in a > > country that lacks basic sanitation and health-care facilities. A > > project to provide every hospital in Ethiopia with an internet > > connection was abandoned a couple of years ago when it > became apparent > > that the lack of internet access was the least of the hospitals' > > worries. And despite the clever technical design of the > $100 laptop, > > which is intended to bring computing within the reach of > the world's > > poorest children, sceptics wonder whether the money might > be better > > spent on schoolrooms, teacher training and books. > > > > The World Bank's researchers looked at 28 examples of new > technologies > > that achieved a market penetration of at least 5% in the developed > > world, and found that 23 of them went on to manage a > penetration of > > over 50%. Once early adopters latch onto something new and > useful, in > > other words, the rest of the population can quickly follow. The > > researchers then considered 67 new technologies that had > achieved a 5% > > penetration in the developing world, and found that only > six of them > > went on to reach 50%. That suggests that although new > technologies are > > often adopted by a small minority of people in poor > countries, they > > then fail to achieve widespread diffusion, so their > benefits do not > > become more generally available. > > > > Lavatories before laptops > > The World Bank concludes that a country's capacity to absorb and > > benefit from new technology depends on the availability of > more basic > > forms of infrastructure. This has clear implications for > development > > policy. Building a fibre-optic backbone or putting plasma > screens into > > schools may be much more glamorous than building electrical grids, > > sewerage systems, water pipelines, roads, railways and schools. It > > would be great if you could always jump straight to the high-tech > > solution, as you can with mobile phones. But with > technology, as with > > education, health care and economic development, such > short-cuts are > > rare. Most of the time, to go high-tech, you need to have > gone medium- > > tech first. > > > > > > > > ============================================================ > > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > > Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College > > lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org > > ============================================================ > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College > lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org > > ============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org
