Robert Holmes wrote:
But if he's modeling hugely aggregated stuff (inflation, GDP,
unemployment, national debt) and the impact his policies would have
then it's quite possible he'll get just as robust results from a
"simplistic" model as he would from some zillion parameter sim
The "impact his policies would have" are probably guided in no small way
by how easy it is to model proposed policy changes and their
consequences. It's easy to model to decreasing a store of high-risk
assets amongst a specific set of banks Less easy to model a future
where we let some big banks crash and burn and then deal with the
current need consumers have for credit with other kinds of government
intervention.
Marcus
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