Glen, Steve,
Glen's latest retort on this thread (see below) gave me this thought: It
would be interesting if you guys could offer an (admittedly
oversimplified) analytical model of your best guesses on what the
productivity function and the acceleration function (2nd derivative of
the production function) of "technology" over time would be. Such a
model, though simplistic, would force some careful thinking.
For example, if you believe that the production of technology over time
(p) is linear, or p = mt, then the acceleration would be 0. If you think
p is strict exponential, or p = e**t (as Steve might), then the
acceleration would be e**t. If you think it is cyclical (periodic) (say,
p = sin(t)), then the growth rate is cyclical, e.g. p = -sin(t). (Maybe
Glen thinks something like that.) Of course, the productivity function
is actually none of these but probably some analytic series, or whatever.
Anyway, this kind of thinking could at least be subjected to past
history and be a more quantifiable conversation promoter.
Just an idea.
Grant
On 5/17/13 10:20 AM, glen e. p. ropella wrote:
Steve Smith wrote at 05/16/2013 04:40 PM:
What I'm talking about is the (as yet to be identified in quality?)
human experience of accelerated technology. [...] The (much) softer
version involves "who do we become as we assimilate or become
assimilated by these new technologies?".
Interesting. I still think we're talking about the same thing. But I'm
wrong _all_ the time. ;-) I truly believe that we have always been in
the midst of what you're calling "accelerated technology". It's no
different now than it was 10 millenia ago or 10 millenia from now. This
is where I think we disagree. You (seem to) believe that now is somehow
fundamentally different from previous eras.
I base my belief on my personal experience and skepticism toward
competing hypotheses. It's the same argument I give for my claim that
idealism is delusion, that actions speak louder than words, and that
good mathematicians will be Platonic, by definition. You've heard the
argument before.
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