A Mathematical Formula Predicted Today's Worldwide Protests Over a Year Ago http://www.policymic.com/articles/82855/a-mathematical-formula-predicted-today-s-worldwide-protests-over-a-year-ago
"From Ukraine and Venezuela to Thailand and Syria, revolutions, protests and unrest are sweeping the globe. Are we just living in crazy times when everyone's angry at the same time, or is there more than meets the eye?
While each situation has its own complexities and particulars, complex systems theorists at the New England Complex Systems Institute hypothesized that the continuing rise of high global food prices could lead to uprisings around the globe. Over a year ago, Yaneer Bar-Yam of the NECSI published a paper that charted the rise of the FAO food price index — a UN measure that maps food costs over time — and saw that whenever that figure rose above 210, riots broke out around the world. The hypothesis held true for 2008's economic collapse and 2011's Tunisian protests. After Bay-Yam built the model, he was able to predict the Arab Spring just weeks before it happened, and now the numbers are checking out for 2013, the year with the third highest food prices on record."
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